NABE Panelists Forecast a Gradual Acceleration in Economic Expansion
The September 2013 NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 43 professional forecasters (see last page for listing). The survey, covering the outlook for 2013 and 2014, was conducted August 8–August 20, 2013. The NABE Outlook originated in 1965 and is one of three surveys conducted by NABE; the others are the NABE Industry Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has 2,300 members and 37 chapters nationwide. Dr. Nayantara Hensel, National Defense University; Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America; Richard Wobbekind, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado at Boulder; and Clare Zempel, Zempel Strategic conducted the analysis of the views of the NABE panelists for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reprinted in whole or in part with a proper citation to NABE.
“The NABE panel forecasts a gradual acceleration in economic expansion, from a 2.3% rate of growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2013 to 3.0% in the spring through the autumn quarters of 2014,” said Dr. Nayantara Hensel, chair of the NABE Outlook Survey. “The panelists suggest that there is an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce its asset purchase program in 2014 and that there is a 45% probability that the Fed will reduce both the monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys in 2013. The panelists suggest that Treasury yields are likely to rise, which may be due to the potential that the Fed may reduce asset purchases. Inflation is expected to remain slow and the labor market is expected to show improvement. The panelists estimate that residential investment and housing starts will continue to grow, although home prices, which they estimate will continue to rise in 2013, may grow more slowly in 2014. The panelists also suggest that consumption will continue to grow slowly in 2013 and then expand in 2014. Moreover, they suggest a less optimistic view of nonresidential structures, equipment and software, and net exports. About 46% of the panelists believe that this year’s cuts in federal spending will reduce the growth rate of real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2013 by half a percentage point or less. Finally, the panelists believe that there is only a 10% probability that Greece will break away from the euro in 2013 and a 13% to 18% probability that Ireland, Italy, or Spain will receive a ‘bailout’ package. Moreover, the panelists believe that there is a 70% probability that no current members will leave the eurozone over the next two years.”
Benjamin Engen, Action Economics Kevin Swift, American Chemistry Council Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Dan Hamilton, California Lutheran University Elena Bondarenko, Cassidy Turley Esmael Adibi, Chapman University James Glassman, Chase Jan Reid, Coast Economic Consulting Jim Kleckley, College of Business, East Carolina University Robert C. Fry, Jr., DuPont Douglas Lee, Economics from Washington Anne Ramstetter, Econosystems Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Michael R. Paslawskyj, FDIC Robert Stein, First Trust Advisors, LP Chyi-Ing (Jenny) Lin, Ford Motor Company Gary Ciminero, GLC Financial Economics Jeff Werling & Ronald Horst, Inforum-University of Maryland John Pope, Investment Economics Richard Rippe, ISI Group Rajeev Dhawan, J. Mack Robinson College of Business- Georgia State University Bill Cheney, John Hancock Financial Brian Horrigan, Loomis, Sayles & Company Lucas Zalduendo, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC Parul Jain, MacroFin Analytics LLC David Nice, Mesirow Financial Joel L. Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors Chad Moutray, National Association of Manufacturers William Dunkelberg, National Federation of Independent Business Stephen Latin-Kasper, National Truck Equipment Association David W. Berson, Nationwide Insurance Carl Tannebaum, Northern Trust James F. Smith, Parsec Financial Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University Michael Dueker, Russell Investments Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale Steve Taddie, Stellar Capital Management James Marple, TD Bank Group Stuart Hoffman, The PNC Financial Services Group Richard Wobbekind, University of Colorado, Boulder Martin A Regalia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce J. Paul Horne, Verizon John Silvia, Wells Fargo DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT (PDF) (NABE Members Only)