The March 2017 NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 50 professional forecasters (see last page for listing). The survey, covering the outlook for 2017 and 2018, was conducted between February 23 and March 9, 2017. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965 and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,500 members and 40 chapters nationwide. Timothy Gill, CBE, American Iron and Steel Institute (chair); Steve Cochrane, CBE, Moody's Analytics; Gregory Daco, Oxford Economics; Keith Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; David Teolis, General Motors Company; and Richard Wobbekind, CBE, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado/Boulder, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “Results from NABE’s March 2017 Outlook Survey show that expectations for economic growth through 2017 have remained largely unchanged,” according to NABE President Stuart Mackintosh, CBE, executive director, Group of Thirty. “Real GDP is expected to increase 2.3% in 2017, before accelerating to 2.5% in 2018. Nine out of 10 panelists believe there is a 25% or lower probability of a recession in the U.S. in 2017. Moreover, nearly 60% indicate that the balance of risks to the economy through 2018 is weighted to the upside. While a majority of the panelists expects corporate tax reform and individual tax cuts to be enacted in the second half of this year, 70% believe that the market is overpricing the impact of expected policy developments.” “Panelists expect higher oil prices, rising long-term interest rates, and further gains in compensation in 2017,” continued Mackintosh. “Various measures of inflation suggest gradually rising price pressures this year. In addition, the survey results reflect a strong improvement in the economy’s capacity to create new jobs. Consistent with these inflation and labor market developments, the panel anticipates that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate three times in both 2017 and 2018, bringing the midpoint of the target range to 2.125% by the end of next year.”
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