The June 2016 NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 48 professional forecasters (see last page for listing). The survey, covering the outlook for 2016 and 2017, was conducted between May 2-17, 2016. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965 and is one of three surveys conducted by NABE; the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,600 members and 42 chapters nationwide. Thomas Kevin Swift, CBE, American Chemistry Council (chair); Steve Cochrane, CBE, Moody's Analytics; Gregory Daco, Oxford Economics; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; and John Silvia, CBE, Wells Fargo, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
“The June NABE Outlook Survey marks the third consecutive markdown of 2016 real GDP growth by respondents,” according to NABE President Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly, CBE, director of research, Global Asset Allocation at Fidelity Investments. “Panelists now foresee economic growth of only 1.8% in 2016, a decline from the 2.2% advance forecasted in the March 2016 survey. Nearly 60% of the panel views uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election as damaging to GDP growth in 2016.”
“More broadly, nearly four out of ten survey participants view the rise of nationalist views around the world as the most important factor likely to constrain economic growth over the next two years,” noted Gregory Daco, head of U.S. Macroeconomics, Oxford Economics USA. “NABE panelists expect the Federal Reserve to raise its federal funds target rate two more times this year but no longer expect one of those rate hikes to occur in June," added John Silvia, CBE, chief economist at Wells Fargo. “The end-of-year Fed funds targets for both 2016 and 2017 have been lowered slightly.”
“As in the March survey, the panel expects house prices to appreciate 5% in 2016,” noted Steve Cochrane, CBE, managing director at Moody's Analytics. “The current outlook for 2017 is for appreciation to slow to 4.3%, which is slightly higher than the 4% rate projected in March.”
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