Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award
The Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award was instituted in 1999 in honor of retiring Business Economics Editor Ed Mennis. The award consists of a cash prize and complimentary attendance for one author to the NABE Annual Meeting, where the paper is presented. The paper is later published in Business Economics.
Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany: SUNY, and Cheng Yang, Lin Anmin Institute of Economic Research, Liaoning University, "ROC Approach to Forecasting Recessions Using Daily Yield Spreads"
Molly Boesel, Shu Chen, and Frank Nothaft, CBE, CoreLogic, "Housing Preferences During the Pandemic: Effect on Home Price, Rent, and Inflation Measurement"
Erik Brynjolfsson, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Wang Jin, MIT Sloan School of Management, and Kristina McElheran, University of Toronto, "The Power of Prediction: Predictive Analytics, Workplace Complements, and Firm Performance"
Steven L. Byers and Jeff Ferry, Coalition for a Prosperous America, "Decoupling from China--An Economic Analysis of the Impact on the U.S. Economy of a Permanent Tariff on Chinese Imports"
Patrick L. Anderson, Anderson Economic Group, LLC, "Business Strategy and Firm Location Decisions: Testing Traditional and Modern Methods"
Christopher Hooton, Internet Association, "America's Online Jobs: Conceptualizations, Measurements, and Influencing Factors"
Cliff Waldman, MAPI Foundation, “The Evolving Contours of Productivity Performance and Automation Investment in U.S. Manufacturing"
James Wilcox, University of California, Berkeley, "The Home-Purchase Sentiment Index: A New Tool for Forecasting Housing Markets”
Stephen Juneau, Didier Bruneel, and Simiao Wang, New York University, "An Econometric Study of Quits Rate Trend in the USA Post Great Recession: Cyclical Movement or Structural Change?"
Patrick Anderson, Anderson Economic Group, LLC, "Persistent Unemployment and Policy Uncertainty."
Jack Kitchen and John Kitchen, CBE, US Department of the Treasury, "Real-Time GDP Forecasting Revisited: Letting the Data Decide"
Gad Levanon and Ben Cheng, The Conference Board, "U.S. Workers Delaying Retirement: Who and Why and Implications for Businesses”
Mark Vitner, CBE, Senior Economist and Managing Director, Wells Fargo, and Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician and Vice President, Wells Fargo, "The Deeper the Recession, the Stronger the Recovery - Is It Really That Simple?"
James A. Wilcox, CBE, University of California, Berkeley, "Underwriting Mortgage Lending, and House Prices: 1996-2008"
James A. Wilcox, CBE, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, “Forecasting Components of Consumption with Components of Consumer Sentiment”
Adam Ratner, West Monroe Partners and Thomas F. Siems, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "Strengthening Globalization’s Invisible Hand: What Matters Most"
Thomas F. Siems, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "Who Supplied My Cheese (and Everything Else!)? Supply Chain Management in the Global Economy"
Patrick L. Anderson and Ilhan K. Geckil, Anderson Economic Group, LLC, "Pocketbook Predictions of Presidential Elections”
Ralph Monaco and John Kitchen, CBE, "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice"
John Tatom, DePaul University, "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Monetary Policy"
Ernest Goss, Creighton University, "The Internet's Contribution to U.S. Productivity Growth"
William T. Gavin, Vice President & Research Coordinator, and Rachel J. Mandal, Research Analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, "Anticipating Monetary Policy With the Federal Reserve's Beige Book: Re-specifying the Taylor Rule"
R. McFall Lamm, Jr., Managing Director and Chief Strategist, Bankers Trust Company, "Economic Foundations and Risk Analysis in Investment Management"
NABE Contributed Paper Award
Daniel Lindberg, Applied Economic Insight LLC and Marquette University, "The Price Elasticity of Senior Housing Demand: Is It a Necessity or a Luxury?"
Azhar Iqbal and Sam Bullard, CBE, Wells Fargo, "Estimating the Economic Cost of the COVID-19 Pandemic"
Christine Chmura, Xiaobing Shuai, and James Stinchcomb, Chmura Economics and Analytics, "COVID-19, Labor Demand, and Government Responses: Evidence from Job Posting Data"
Patrick L. Anderson, Anderson Economic Group, LLC, "Blue Smoke and Seers: Measuring Latent Demand for Cannabis Products in a Partially Criminalized Market"
Sam Bullard, CBE; Azhar Iqbal; John E. Silvia, CBE, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, "Are Yield Curve/Monetary Cycles Approaches Enough to Predict Recessions?"
Azhar Iqbal and Mark Vitner, CBE, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, "Quantifying the Housing Recovery: Which MSAs are Experiencing Bubbles?"
Sam Bullard, CBE; Azhar Iqbal; and John Silvia, CBE, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, “A New Framework to Estimate the Near-Term Path of the Fed Funds Rate.”
Azhar Iqbal and John Silvia, CBE, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, “Is Predicting Recessions Enough?”
Azhar Iqbal and John Silvia, CBE, Wells Fargo Securities, "An Ordered Probit Approach to Predicting the Probability of Inflation/Deflation."
Gad Levanon, The Conference Board, "Evolving Occupational Labor Shortages in the US."
Rani Isaac, California State Library, and Dan Hamilton and Kirk Lesh, California Lutheran University, for their paper "Using Aggregate Time Series Variables to Forecast Notices of Default.”
Gad Levanon, The Conference Board, received a Contributed Paper Award for his article "Evaluating and Comparing Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators."
Jeremy A. Leonard, Economic Consultant, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI
Cliff Waldman, Economist, Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI , “An Empirical Model of the Sources of Innovation in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector”
Jacob De Rooy, Capital College of The Pennsylvania State University at Harrisburg, "Pricing of Mutual Fund Services in Retirement Plans: Evidence From Open-End Equity Funds"
Cliff J. Waldman, Economist, Waldman Associates, “China’s Demographic Destiny and Its Economic Implications: A Conceptual and Empirical Analysis”
Dr. Xiaobing Shuai, Senior Economist, Chmura Economics & Analytics, “Are Center Cities the Engines of Growth for their Suburbs?—Evidence from Virginia’s Metropolitan Areas”
Bruce D. Phillips, National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation, "The Future Small Business Workforce: Will Labor Shortages Exist?"
Douglas Lamdin, "Corporate Bond risk Premia: Have They Changed and Does the Stock Market Affect It?"
Johnathan McCarthy, "Capital Overhangs: Has INvestment Spending Suffered from a Hangover?"
Elenora Omarova and Christopher Mills, "Predicting Currency Crises -- A Practical Application for Risk"
Jim Deegan, Jim Deegan & Associates, "Age Cohort Analysis and the S&P500 Dividend Yield – the Pig in the Python and a Bear Market"
Charles Steindel, CBE, and Kevin Stiroh, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
"Productivity: What Is It, and Why Do We Care About It?"
David R. Payne, CBE, Economist/Statistician, U.S. Department of Commerce, "Anticipating Monetary Policy with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book: Re-specifying the Taylor Rule"
Duncan H. Meldrum, CBE, Corporate Economist, Air Products & Chemicals Inc "Country Risk and Foreign Direct Investment"