Content
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Session Descriptions
Monday, July 16
7:30 AM - 8:00 AM Continental Breakfast
8:00 AM - 8:05 AM Welcoming Remarks
Mine Yücel*, CBE, NABE President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
8:05 AM - 9:05 AM Economic Statistics from the US Government and Industry Sources
Maurine Haver+, CBE, Founder and President, Haver Analytics
This session will provide an overview of the statistics provided by the US federal statistical system with special focus on those to be covered in the seminar. It will highlight examples of common misinterpretations of the data and the concepts to focus on in the upcoming EMS sessions.
9:10 AM - 10:20 AM
Measuring Employment: Using and Interpreting Employment Statistics 
Chris Manning, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Julie Hatch Maxfield, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Moderator: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics
The Employment Situation is watched closely by financial markets worldwide and is often cited as the most important US economic release. This session will explain the differences between the two featured measures of employment and why they may occasionally provide very different views of employment in any given month. Presenters from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will discuss the Current Employment Statistics Survey (aka the Establishment Survey or Payroll Employment), which is used to derive the monthly change in payroll employment and average hourly earnings and the Current Population Survey (aka the Household Survey), which is used to derive the unemployment rate, alternative measures of labor underutilization, and key labor force statistics for various demographic groups. The presenters will cover each survey’s methodology, challenges such as business births and deaths for the establishment survey and common mistakes made in analyzing the employment report by reporters and bloggers.
10:20 AM - 10:40 AM Networking Break
10:40 AM - 11:50 AM
Track A: GDP and the National Accounts: The Building Blocks of the Economy
Jason Chute, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Kathleen Navin, CBE, Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit
Moderator: Robert Parker, Economist
This session will cover the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), which are essential for understanding US economic activity. Topics will include the structure of the NIPAs, the composition of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income, and the relationship between them, as well as important characteristics of real GDP and its components. Session participants will learn how to properly calculate contributions to real growth and how to construct their own special aggregates using GDP components.
Track B: Federal Reserve Bank Regional Data, Surveys, and Studies
Joel Elvery, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Ron Wirtz, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Moderator: Mine Yücel*, CBE, NABE President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
The Federal Reserve District Banks produce a vast array of regional reports and unique data series, many of which are not promoted or publicized. In this session, representatives from three District’s will discuss data and research produced for their region. Participants will have an opportunity to learn more about the unique regional data, current analysis and research projects produced at these District Banks.
11:50 AM - 1:05 PM Luncheon: The Future of Economic Statistics: The Role of Private Sector Data
Jed Kolko, Chief Economist, Indeed
Michael Horrigan#, CBE, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Introduction: Rich Wobbekind+, CBE, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado
1:10 PM - 2:20 PM
Track A: Measuring Inflation: What It Measures and How It Is Measured
Kyle Brown, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Steve Reed, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Moderator: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the cost of living by measuring the change in price of a market basket of consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will present an overview of the CPI. Topics covered will include the conceptual foundation of the CPI, seasonal adjustment, quality adjustment, initiation of items into the sample, and the treatment of new goods and sample rotation. A representative from the BEA will follow, comparing and contrasting the CPI with the chain-type Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
Track B: Taking the Temperature of Household Debt
Andrew Haughwout, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Theodore Littleton, IFR Markets
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz+, CBE, National Retail Federation
When it comes to household finances, “debt” is often considered a four-letter word. While too much debt certainly can be problematic, access to debt and the responsible use of debt can enhance household balance sheets. Session participants will learn how different types of household debt are measured and reported. The discussion will then turn to the challenges involved in interpreting aggregate household debt statistics.
2:25 PM - 3:35 PM
Track A: International Transactions: A Balancing Act
Raymond Mataloni, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Manuel Balmaseda#, CBE, CEMEX
Moderator: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics
The international statistics produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) describe the US economy’s relationship with the rest of the world. These statistics are presented in the international transactions accounts (Balance of Payments), the international investment position accounts, and in data on the operations of multinational companies. Session participants will learn what data are presented in these accounts, how they are structured, their key data sources, and how to access the data.
Track B: Housing and Construction: Not Just Sticks, Straw, and Bricks
Erica M. Filipek, Census Bureau
Kermit Baker, Harvard University/American Institute of Architects
Moderator: Ken Simonson+, Associated General Contractors of America
This session will present an overview of economic indicators from the federal government and a variety of private sector sources covering residential and nonresidential construction; housing starts, sales, price trends; and affordability measures. The presenters will illustrate how they use data from different sources to gain insight on where various indicators are headed and how activity differs by locality.
3:40 PM - 4:00 PM Networking Break
4:00 PM - 5:10 PM
Track A: Corporate Profits Data: From the NIPAs to the S&P
Kate Pinard, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Dick Rippe+, CBE, Evercore ISI Group
Moderator: Rosemary Marcuss+, Economist
This session will clarify the difference between economic profits as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and profits reported by corporations in their financial statements. A speaker from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will cover what is included or not included in the NIPAs, special terminology such as IVA and CCA, and the source data used to derive NIPA profits. A data user will focus on the difference between financial and tax profits and those reported in the NIPAs and the reasons for using all of these different measures for the best understanding of trends in corporate profitability.
Track B: Understanding Monetary Policy
Julie Remache, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Dana Saporta*, CBE, Credit Suisse
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz+, CBE, National Retail Federation
The Federal Reserve has evolved in the past quarter century from a secretive, mysterious force in the financial system to a much more accessible, transparent institution. But even in the current era of openness, understanding the Fed’s balance sheet and its operations remains a challenge. In this session, a member of the Federal Reserve System will explain how Fed operations have changed through the years, concentrating on the Fed’s approach to balance sheet normalization. A business economist will then provide an outsider’s perspective, describing the practice and importance of “Fedwatching” in the private sector.
5:15 PM - 6:15 PM Networking Reception
6:30 PM - 8:00 PM Networking Happy Hour
Tuesday, July 17
7:30 AM - 8:00 AM Continental Breakfast
8:00 AM - 9:10 AM
Track A: Other Employment Indicators: Jolts, BED, and Claims
Ronald Wilus, Department of Labor
Kevin Cooksey, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Charlotte Oslund, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Moderator: Rich Wobbekind+, CBE, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado
This session will feature presentations on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Business Employment Dynamics and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance program. Data from these programs are widely used to measure economic and entrepreneurial activity in the labor market and the overall health of the economy. The presenters will provide an overview of each program, including the methodology, data published, the scope and source of the data, the news releases produced by the programs, and uses and users of the data.
Track B: Fiscal Policy: The Math and the Interpretation
Robert W. Arnold, Congressional Budget Office
Christi Hawley Anthony, Congressional Budget Office
Melissa Pumphrey, Credit Suisse
Moderator: Dana Saporta*, CBE, Credit Suisse
The US federal debt is trending higher in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP. In such an environment, a good understanding of national budget statistics and their uses will become increasingly essential over time. This fiscal policy session is a brand new EMS offering. It will start with a representative from the Congressional Budget Office discussing how the CBO’s baseline federal debt projections are developed. A business economist will follow, explaining how federal budget math factors into other macroeconomic estimates and forecasts.
9:15 AM - 10:25 AM
Track A: Productivity: The Key to Understanding Economic Growth
Chris Sparks, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bob Shackleton, Congressional Budget Office
Moderator: William A. Strauss#, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
This presentation will briefly review concepts behind the BLS measures of labor and multi-factor productivity and related series on outputs and inputs. It will then discuss some of the properties of these series, both in the long run and over the business cycle. The presentation will briefly analyze the relationship between productivity, output, labor hours, other inputs, compensation and unit labor costs.
Track B: Making Sense Out of Wages, Earnings, and Compensation
Ken Robertson, Bureau of Labor Statistics
John Robertson, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Moderator: George Kahn#, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
This session will present an overview of the major wage, earnings, and compensation measures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These include measures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey; the Current Population Survey (CPS); the Employment Cost Index (ECI) Program; and measures from the BLS Office of Productivity. Topics covered include the scope and measurement goals of the series, the methodological backgrounds on their construction, and trends in what the series are telling us about wages, earnings, and compensation.
10:25 AM - 10:45 AM Networking Break
10:45 AM - 11:55 AM
Track A: Financial Accounts: Understanding the Role and Value
Matthew Hoops, Federal Reserve Board
Constance L. Hunter#, CBE, KPMG
Moderator: Richard Brown#, CBE, Council of Economic Advisers
The Financial Accounts of the US, also known as the Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA), present sources and uses of funds for different sectors of the economy. Together with the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), they form the national accounts for the US. This presentation will describe the matrix structure of the accounts, the sectors and instruments included in the accounts, and the underlying source data. The Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts (IMA), compiled jointly with BEA, will also be covered.
Track B: International Comparisons: The Apples-to-Apples Challenge
Florina Tanase, International Monetary Fund
Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Moderator: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics
Working with economic data across countries poses a number of challenges given different conventions, methodologies, currencies, frequencies, and country characteristics. Efforts of the IMF, UN and other international organizations to promote international standards have been constructive, but they occasionally have led to greater confusion when the same term is used for two entirely different concepts. Speakers will address how to avoid the most frequently made mistakes and the areas requiring the most attention when making international comparisons.
12:00 PM - 1:15 PM Luncheon: Being an Economics Detective: Finding New Industries in the Data
Michael Mandel, Chief Economic Strategist, Progressive Policy Institute
Introduction: Jack Kleinhenz+, CBE, National Retail Federation
1:15 PM -2:00 PM Why Are Economic Data Seasonally Adjusted?
Ataman Ozyildirim, The Conference Board
Introduction: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics
Seasonality is a common feature of economic data and if not properly addressed, it can cloud our judgment about what the data are telling us. Seasonal adjustment methodologies have been developed to remove these predictable patterns to reveal the underlying trend and cycle. When is seasonal adjustment appropriate? What are the best methods? What are the pitfalls and challenges in analyzing seasonal and seasonally adjusted data? This session will look at these issues from a user’s perspective to help develop a deeper appreciation for working with economic indicators.
2:00 PM - 3:00 PM Closing Keynote: Where Are We in the Business Cycle?
Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly+, CBE, Director of Research - Global Asset Allocation, Fidelity Investments
Introduction: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics
3:15 PM - 5:15 PM Bonus Session: Maintaining the Quality and Integrity of US Government Data:
A Discussion and Mixer for Journalists and Economists
Brian Moyer, Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Stephanie Studds, Chief, Economic Indicators Division, Census Bureau
William Wiatrowski, Acting Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Moderator: Lydia DePillis, Economy Reporter, CNNMoney
Timely and reliable economic statistics are key to the work of both economists and journalists as they endeavor to grasp and crystallize the ever-evolving economic situation for their audiences. Threats to high-quality economic statistics include insufficient budgetary funding for the federal statistical system, resulting in cuts to programs and survey samples, and reduced survey response rates. The dynamic U.S. economy requires statistical agencies to constantly be modernizing, researching, and investing to ensure measurements keep pace.
Join the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW), and the American Statistical Association (ASA) for a panel discussion with senior officials from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau to learn how the agencies are innovating and evolving in a time of growing budgetary and political challenges. Panel discussion will conclude at 4:15 PM, and a networking reception hosted by The NABE Foundation, SABEW, and ASA will follow.
Can't make the full seminar? Attend the bonus session and mixer for free if you are a NABE Member, SABEW Member, or government employee. Register here
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* Current NABE Director
# Former NABE Director
+ Former NABE President