NABE Outlook Survey
September 2024
NABE Panelists See Fed's Rate Cut as Improving the Outlook for the Economy, but Risks Shift to the Downside
The September 2024 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 32 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for 2024 and 2025, was conducted September 12-21, 2024. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Mervin Jebaraj (chair), University of Arkansas; Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide; Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. Bank; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Caitlin Patrick, National Association for Business Economics; Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America; and Ryan Sweet, Oxford Economics, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “More than half of the NABE Outlook Survey panelists believe the risks to their forecasts over the next 12 months are weighted to the downside,” said NABE President Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist and global head of Thematic and Macro Investing, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “A monetary policy mistake is cited as the greatest downside risk by 39% of panelists, followed by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election noted by 23% of panelists, and the broadening of conflicts in the Middle East or Ukraine, also by 23%. Panelists have revised their economic growth forecasts higher for 2024, and lowered their forecasts for 2025. Forecasts for the unemployment rate have also been revised upward from the previous survey, to 4.1% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025.
“Just over one third of survey panelists indicates that the fed funds rate should be between 4.75% and 4.99%, in line with the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee decision to cut rates by 50 basis points at the September 17-18 meeting,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj, director, Center for Business and Economic Research at the University
of Arkansas. Thirty percent of panelists say they would have raised rates, left them unchanged, or cut them by 25 basis points. Another 33% would have cut rates more than the FOMC did at the September 2024 meeting.
“NABE panelists also forecast slightly higher inflation rates, lower unemployment rates, slower economic growth and core inflation compared to the Fed’s September economic projections for 2025.
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