NABE Outlook Survey

October 2022

NABE Panelists Expect Recession, Despite Continuing Growth in Jobs; Large Majority Sees Risks Tilted toward the Downside

The October 2022 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 45 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for 2022 and 2023, was conducted September 13-23, 2022. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Yelena Shulyatyeva (chair), BNP Paribas; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Kathleen Navin, CBE, S&P Global Market Intelligence; Dana Peterson, The Conference Board; Sara Rutledge, StepStone Group; and Robert Rosener, Morgan Stanley, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.

SUMMARY: “NABE Outlook Survey panelists forecast slower growth and higher inflation in both 2022 and 2023 than they previously expected,” said NABE President David Altig, executive vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. “In addition, panelists have raised their expectations for how high interest rates will rise.”

“More than three-quarters of respondents believe the odds are 50-50 or less that the economy will achieve a 'soft landing',” added NABE Vice President Julia Coronado, president and founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “More than half the panelists indicate that the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook is too much monetary tightness.”