NABE Outlook Survey
November 2025
NABE Panel Expects Mildly Stronger Growth and Marginally Higher Inflation Pressures in 2026; Fed Expected to Cut Rates in December, But Ease Less Next Year
The November 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 42 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for the remainder of 2025 and 2026, was conducted November 3-11, 2025. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Yelena Maleyev, CBE (chair), KPMG; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado; Caitlin Patrick, National Association for Business Economics; Laura Rosner-Warburton, MacroPolicy Perspectives; Yelena Shulyatyeva, The Conference Board; and Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “The November 2025 NABE Outlook Survey results point to a modestly stronger economic trajectory compared to that in the October 2025 survey,” said NABE President Gregory Daco, chief economist, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young, LLP. “The panel has marked up its outlook for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, supported by firmer consumer spending and a more resilient investment backdrop. Inflation is expected to follow a slightly flatter path, with tariffs adding mild upward
pressure. Both headline and core PCE are projected at 2.9% by end-2025, easing toward 2.6% in 2026. Panelists anticipate a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the fed funds rate seen near 3.6% at year-end 2025, but marginally less easing in 2026 with the fed funds rate around 3.1% by year-end, consistent with a steady view of the long-run neutral rate around 3.0%.”
“Labor market expectations have also softened from those in the October 2025 survey,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG. “Job gains are projected to slow, dipping to roughly 23,000 per month by year-end 2025. The unemployment rate is expected to rise and hold at around 4.5% throughout 2026. The dispersion of job-growth forecasts is unusually wide, underscoring elevated uncertainty about labor demand.”
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