NABE Outlook Survey
November 2024
NABE Outlook Survey Panelists Expect Continued, but Moderating, Economic Growth and Slowing Inflation
The November 2024 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 38 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for 2024 and 2025, was conducted October 29 - November 8, 2024.The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Kathy Bostjancic (chair), Nationwide; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Mervin Jebaraj, University of Arkansas; Tendayi Kapfidze, Wells Fargo; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado; Caitlin Patrick, National Association for Business Economics; Rebecca Rockey, Cushman & Wakefield; and Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “NABE panelists’ forecasts for economic growth in 2024 and 2025 are higher than their previous projections,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, global chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “The current forecast calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 2.7% in 2024, and 2.0% in 2025—up from 2.6% and 1.8% in the September Outlook Survey. In addition, the largest share of respondents—44%—now sees the risks surrounding the outlook as balanced, whereas a majority of respondents in the previous survey thought downside risks were more likely than balanced or upside risks.”
“The median forecast for inflation calls for further cooling, with the consumer price index projected to slow to a 2.3% annual rate by the end of 2025, and the personal consumption expenditure price index coming in at a 2.1% annual rate by then,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “The latter rate is the Federal Open Market Committee‘s preferred measure of inflation. Panelists look for the Committee to gradually but consistently lower its target for the federal funds interest rate, cutting the target by a quarter-percentage point in December, followed by a full percentage point in 2025.”
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