NABE Outlook Survey

May 2023

NABE Outlook Panel Predicts U.S. Economy Likely to Weather Serial Crises

The May 2023 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 45 professional forecasters (see last page for listing). The survey, covering the outlook for 2023 and 2024, was conducted May 2-9, 2023. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Dana M. Peterson (chair), The Conference Board; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Yelena Maleyev, CBE, KPMG; David Bowers, Absolute Strategy Research Ltd; and Ryan Sweet, Oxford Economics, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.

SUMMARY: “Respondents to the latest NABE Outlook Survey are divided as to whether a recession in the U.S. is likely in the next year,” said NABE President Julia Coronado, founder and president, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “However, the median forecast calls for economic growth through 2024 to be modest. On balance, the panel expects higher interest rates in 2023 than forecasted in the February 2023 Outlook Survey. Interest rates are expected to decline and inflation is expected to slow in 2024, while job growth is anticipated to moderate, and the unemployment rate to rise.”

“Most respondents indicate the banking crisis is contained but ongoing, with only about one-fifth believing it will worsen,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Dana M. Peterson, chief economist, The Conference Board. “A majority of panelists believes breaching the debt ceiling will not bring on a global financial crisis unless an impasse persists for several weeks. Most respondents believe de-dollarization is not a threat over the foreseeable future.”