NABE Outlook Survey
March 2026
NABE Panelists See Outlook Deteriorating as Growth Risks Rise, Inflation Pressures Rebuild, and Fed Path Clouds
The initial March 2026 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 44 professional forecasters (see last page for listing). The initial survey, covering the outlook for the remainder of 2026 and 2027, was conducted March 5-13, 2026. In light of recent U.S. military action in Iran and its evolving economic implications, the National Association for Business Economics issued a Flash Outlook Survey as a follow-up to the March 2026 Outlook Survey. The Flash Survey was conducted March 27-30, with responses from 30 of the 44 panelists. Results from the Flash Survey are highlighted in blue. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Yelena Maleyev, CBE, (chair), KPMG; Ryan James Boyle, Northern Trust; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado; Caitlin McLiverty, National Association for Business Economics; Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Laura Rosner-Warburton, MacroPolicy Perspectives; Yelena Shulyatyeva, The Conference Board; Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America; and Sarah Wolfe, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “The March 2026 NABE Outlook Flash Survey, fielded just two weeks after the March 2026 NABE Outlook Survey, shows the economic outlook has shifted quickly and meaningfully,” said NABE President Greg Daco, chief economist, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLC. “The majority of respondents now expects recent geopolitical developments to reduce 2026 GDP growth and push headline and core inflation higher this year and into 2027. The outlook for interest rates has fractured in turn, with panelists’ views now nearly evenly split between no cuts, one cut, and two cuts this year. That rapid deterioration in sentiment sits against the initial March survey that had already told a cautionary tale: the share of forecasters viewing risks as skewed to the downside had jumped sharply from 48% in November to 77%, driven by a broadening of geopolitical conflicts.”
“Labor market conditions remain a central concern in the March survey,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG. “Average monthly nonfarm payroll growth for 2026 has been revised down to 40,000, well below the 64,000-pace anticipated in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.5% through most of 2026. Notably, 40% of panelists now believe the break-even job gain needed to keep unemployment steady is just 25,000-50,000 per month—a threshold the panel's own forecast barely clears.”
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