NABE Outlook Survey
June 2026
NABE Outlook Survey Panel Lowers Growth Forecasts, Raises Inflation Projections, and Pushes Out Fed Easing
The June 2026 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 44 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for the remainder of 2026 and 2027, was conducted June 1-9, 2026. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Yelena Maleyev, CBE (chair), KPMG; Ryan James Boyle, Northern Trust; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado; Caitlin McLiverty, National Association for Business Economics; Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Laura Rosner-Warburton, MacroPolicy Perspectives; Yelena Shulyatyeva, The Conference Board; Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America; and Sarah Wolfe, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “The June 2026 NABE Outlook Survey panel has lowered its economic growth projections while marking up inflation,” said NABE President Gregory Daco, chief economist, EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP. “The median forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2026 fell to 2% from 2.4% in March, while headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expectations rose nearly a full percentage point to 3.6%, year-over-year, for the fourth quarter of 2026. Core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.2% by year-end 2026. As growth expectations have softened and inflation forecasts moved higher, panelists have pushed back the expected path of monetary easing. After the April 2026 Flash Survey showed views divided among no rate cuts, one cut, or two cuts this year, 70% of respondents now expect the Federal Open Market Committee to hold rates steady through year-end, with the first cut delayed until the second quarter of 2027.”
“The labor market outlook improved in the June survey, as panelists raised their projection for average monthly job growth in 2026 to 68,000, up from 40,000 in March, and the anticipated unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.4%,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Yelena Maleyev, CBE, senior economist, KPMG. “Nearly two-thirds of panelists now expect the next economic downturn won’t begin until 2028 or later, up from 56% who held this view in March, and 48% see risks to their forecasts as balanced. Geopolitical conflict remains the top downside concern, but for the first time in over a year, an end to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East outranked productivity gains as the leading upside risk. Opinions on AI’s role in the near future vary widely. Most panelists still see AI investment as inflationary over the next year, and nearly half expects it to have a net-negative impact on payroll employment by the end of 2027.”
DOWNLOAD COMPLETE SURVEY REPORT (PDF – Members Only)