NABE Outlook Survey
June 2025
NABE Panelists See Sluggish Economic Growth and Elevated Inflation Ahead
The June 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 42 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for the remainder of 2025 and 2026, was conducted May 27-June 2, 2025. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Kathy Bostjancic (chair), Nationwide; Martin Holdrich, Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.; Mervin Jebaraj, University of Arkansas; Tendayi Kapfidze, Wells Fargo; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado; Caitlin Patrick, National Association for Business Economics; Rebecca Rockey, Cushman & Wakefield; and Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. Edited by Kate Anderson. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE.
SUMMARY: “The NABE Outlook Survey panel’s forecasts for economic growth in 2025 and 2026 are little changed from NABE’s special April Flash Survey,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, global chief economist, Ford Motor Company, “but they are lower than the pre-April 2 projections.”
“The median forecast calls for real GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, down from 1.9% projected for both years in the pre-April 2 Outlook survey. In addition, a majority of respondents, 78%, sees tariff impacts as the greatest downside risk to economic growth over the next 12 months.”
“The median forecasts for inflation for this year have eased from the April Flash Survey but remain elevated and above the pre-April 2 forecasts,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “The personal consumption expenditure price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, is forecasted to be 3.1% from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025. While it is projected to cool to 2.3% by the end of 2026, this still exceeds the Fed’s 2% target. Panelists look for the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the federal funds rate by half a percentage point by year-end, followed by another half-percentage-point reduction in 2026.”
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