NABE Outlook Survey

February 2023

NABE Panel Expresses Disparate Views Regarding U.S. Economic Outlook

The February 2023 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel of 48 professional forecasters. The survey, covering the outlook for 2023 and 2024, was conducted February 3-10, 2023. The NABE Outlook Survey originated in 1965, and is one of three surveys conducted by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE); the others are the NABE Business Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has over 2,900 members and 44 chapters nationwide. Dana M. Peterson (chair), The Conference Board; Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation; Brent Meyer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Yelena Maleyev, CBE, KPMG; David Bowers, Absolute Strategy Research Ltd; and Ryan Sweet, Oxford Economics, conducted the analysis of survey responses for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the panelists, and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reproduced in whole or in part with appropriate citation to NABE. 

SUMMARY: “Results of the February 2023 NABE Outlook survey continue to reflect significant divergence regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy,” said NABE President Julia Coronado, president and founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “Estimates of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product or real GDP, inflation, labor market indicators, and interest rates are all widely diffused, likely reflecting a variety of opinions on the fate of the economy—ranging from recession to soft landing to robust growth.”

“Panelists’ views are split regarding how high the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, how long rates might stay at the peak, when cuts would begin, and what would signal the central bank’s actions on each of these fronts,” added Dana M. Peterson, NABE Outlook Survey chair, and chief economist, The Conference Board. “Respondents are also highly concerned but divided in their opinions regarding the consequences of other matters that might affect the U.S. economy, including the impact of China’s reopening on global inflation and the looming debt ceiling.”