Business Conditions Survey

October 2024

Outlook for Business Conditions Largely Intact Despite Election Uncertainty

The October 2024 NABE Business Conditions Survey report presents the responses of 51 NABE members to a survey conducted October 3-10, 2024, on business conditions in their firms or industries, and reflects third-quarter 2024 results and the near-term outlook.

COMMENTS: “The October 2024 Business Conditions Survey results reveal that the odds of recession have fallen among panelists,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, CBE, global chief economist, Ford Motor Company. “While concern over inflation continues to affect hiring and/or investment decisions by many firms, the smallest share of firms since January 2022 are passing on higher prices to their consumers, or are expecting to do so in the next quarter.”

“While many of the results in this quarter’s survey suggest improvement, concerns regarding availability of skilled labor remain,” added NABE Business Conditions Survey Chair Selma Hepp, chief economist and senior vice president, CoreLogic. “In addition, fewer panelists are reporting that their firms are passing their cost increases on to consumers which bodes well for future inflation readings. Lastly, the upcoming U.S. presidential election doesn’t seem to be driving hiring or investment decisions for most panelists.”

HIGHLIGHTS

• A majority of panelists (71%) reports no delays in hiring or investment decisions at their firms pending the outcome of the November 2024 U.S. presidential election.
• Respondents place low odds on the U.S. entering a recession over the next 12 months. Fifty-six percent of respondents put the probability of a U.S. recession at 25% or lower.
• While a majority of panelists (63%) reports no changes in employment over the previous three months, a larger share of panelists reports having shed workers than in the previous survey. Compared to the July 2024 survey, more panelists indicate they expect employment at their firm to either increase (23%) or decrease (17%) over the next three months; the share expecting employment to be unchanged declined.
• The number of survey respondents reporting that their firms are passing on at least some of their cost increases to their customers dropped from 67% in the July survey to 54% in October.
• Panelists indicate their firms are more likely to face shortages compared to earlier this year. Skilled labor continues to be the most-often cited shortage, at 39%—the largest share since October 2022.