Business Conditions Survey

July 2024

Record Share of NABE Panelists Reports Their Firms Raised Prices in Q2 2024; Profit Margins and Sales Moderated

The July 2024 NABE Business Conditions Survey report presents the responses of 45 NABE members to a survey conducted June 25-July 8, 2024, on business conditions in their firms or industries, and reflects second-quarter 2024 results and the near-term outlook.

COMMENTS: “The July 2024 Business Conditions Survey results reveal a record share of respondents reporting that their firms raised prices in the second quarter of 2024,” said NABE President Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist, Morgan Stanley. “In addition, results reflect a moderation in sales and profit growth, with fewer respondents than in the April survey reporting rising sales and profit margins in the previous three months.” (

“While many of the results in this quarter’s survey suggest improvement, the labor market appears uncertain,” added NABE Business Conditions Survey Analyst Michael Uhrich, founder and chief economist, Seventh Point Analytic Consulting. “The share of respondents seeing rising employment in their firms and industries is the highest it’s been in four quarters, yet more than 20% of respondents say layoffs in their firms and industries will be more likely during the second half of the year.”

HIGHLIGHTS

• A smaller share of panelists reports growth in their firms’ sales over the last three months (47%) compared to the preceding three months (57%). 
• Fewer panelists report rising profit margins than falling margins. The Net Rising Index (NRI) for profit margins—the percentage of panelists reporting rising margins minus the percentage reporting falling margins—fell from 24 in the April survey to 7—the lowest reading since October, when it was -20.
• A larger share of respondents reports that their firms increased prices over the last three months than in the previous quarter, with 57% reporting rising prices, up from 41% in the April survey.
• The NRI for employment increased for a third consecutive survey, rising to 13 in July from 6 in April, and from its recent trough of -9 in October 2023. Roughly two-thirds of respondents report no change in employment.
• A majority (60%) of respondents say their firms and/or industries are equally likely to lay off staff over the next six months as compared to the previous six months. Twenty-one percent say layoffs are more likely to come, while 10% each say layoffs have become less likely or don’t know.