Session Descriptions

Early career professionals and first-time attendees typically focus on Track A sessions. Seasoned professionals and repeat attendees look to Track B sessions for a deeper dive on specialized topics. Or….mix and match sessions from both tracks to customize your learning experience! 

Monday, July 15

8:00 AM - 8:30 AM Continental Breakfast

8:30 AM - 8:35 AM Welcome Remarks

Ellen Zentner, NABE President; Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director, Morgan Stanley 

8:35 AM - 9:45 AM

Track A Measuring Employment - Using and Interpreting Employment Statistics 

Brittney Forbes, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Nic Johnson, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Moderator: Maurine Haver, CBE, Haver Analytics

The Employment Situation is watched closely by financial markets worldwide and is often cited as the most important US federal statistical economic release. Focusing on household survey and establishment survey concepts in this release, this session will explain the differences between the two featured measures of employment and why they may occasionally provide very different views of the direction of the labor market in any given month.  Presenters from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will discuss the Current Employment Statistics Survey (aka the Establishment Survey or Payroll Employment), which is used to derive the monthly change in payroll employment and average hourly earnings and the Current  Population Survey (aka the Household Survey), which is used to derive the unemployment rate, alternative measures of labor underutilization, and key labor force statistics for various demographic groups.   The presenters will cover each survey’s methodology, challenges such as business births and deaths for the establishment survey and common mistakes made in analyzing the employment report by reporters and bloggers.

Data Series Include:
• Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 
• Private Employment
• Manufacturing Jobs
• Service Producing Jobs
• Average Hourly Earnings
• Work Week
• Unemployment Rate
• Duration of Unemployment
• Labor Force Participation Rate
• Part-Time for Economic Reasons
• Employment/Population Ratio 

Track B Other Employment Indicators - A Look Beyond the Jobs Report

Erik Friesenhahn, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jonathan Krause, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Katie Genadek, US Census Bureau
Moderator: Rich Wobbekind, CBE, University of Colorado Boulder

This session will feature presentations from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau that focus on employment indicators that go beyond what is covered in the monthly jobs report. In particular, we will have two presentations from BLS, one on the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data and the other on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). BED data provide a dynamic view of job creation and destruction among growing and declining firms by industry. JOLTS provides critical information on business cycle indicators such as labor shortages and trends in layoffs. The presentation from the Census Bureau will focus on the surveys and census industry measurement programs that provide a view of the important relationship between employment and output.  The presenters will provide an overview of each program, including the methodology, data published, the scope and source of the data, the news releases produced by the programs, and uses and users of the data.

Data Series Include:
• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
• Business Employment Dynamics (BED)
• Five Year Census of Industries 
• Annual Survey of Industries 

Track A GDP and the National Accounts - The Building Blocks of the Economy  

Lisa Mataloni, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Dana M. Peterson, The Conference Board
Moderator: Kathleen Navin, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

This session will cover the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), which are essential for understanding US economic activity.  Topics will include the structure of the NIPAs, the composition of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income, and the relationship between them, as well as important characteristics of real GDP and its components.   Session participants will learn how to properly calculate contributions to real growth and how to construct their own special aggregates using GDP components.

Data Series Include:
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• Gross Domestic Income (GDI) 
• Personal Consumption Expenditures
• Government Receipts and Expenditures
• Personal Income 
• Personal Savings
• Chain-Weighted GDP 
• Component Contributions to Growth  
• GDP Price Index
• Industry Economic Accounts

Track B Wages and Compensation - Distinctions with a Difference

Dave Talan, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Michael W. Horrigan, CBE, W.E. Upjohn Institute 
Moderator: George Kahn, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Retired

There are so many different measures of wages and compensation, it is often confusing for business economists to know which ones to use in their analysis. This session will present an overview of the major wage, earnings, and compensation measures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These include measures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey; the Current Population Survey (CPS); the Employment Cost Index (ECI) Program; and measures from the BLS Office of Productivity. Topics covered include the scope and measurement goals of the series, the methodological backgrounds on their construction, and trends in what the series are telling us about wages, earnings, and compensation.

Data Series Include:
• Current Employment Statistics Survey
• Current Population Survey
• Employment Cost Index
• Occupational Employment and Wage Survey
• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 

11:15 AM - 12:25 PM 

Track A Inflation - What It Is and How It Is Measured  

Steve Reed,  Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kyle Brown, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Moderator: Maurine Haver, CBE, Haver Analytics

The current challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in adjustment monetary policy to respond to trends in inflation the last three years make understanding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) critically important for business economists. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will present an overview of the CPI. Topics covered will include the conceptual foundation of the CPI, seasonal adjustment, quality adjustment, initiation of items into the sample, and the treatment of new goods and sample rotation. A representative from the BEA will follow, comparing and contrasting the CPI with the chain-type Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.  

Data Series Include:
• CPI-U All Items, Food, Energy, and Core 
• Super-Core CPI-U 
• Owners Equivalent Rent (OER)
• PCE Chain Price Index
• PCE Core Services excluding Housing
• Median PCE Inflation Rate
• Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
• Multivariate Core Trend Inflation

Track B Telling a Local Narrative with U.S. Regional Data

Mauricio Ortiz, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Joseph Mengedoth, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Dave Iaia, S&P Global 
Moderator: Kathleen Navin, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

With much of the EMS agenda focused on US National statistics, this session is designed to introduce attendees to US state and local data, which can be used to better understand economic conditions across more granular regions of the country. In this session, we will pair one data user with two data providers, one quantitative and one qualitative. For the quantitative data provider, a BEA economist will talk about the state and local data offerings available. For the qualitative data provider, a speaker from the Federal Reserve will provide insight into the so-named Beige Book. The data user will share how these data are used to assess the economic picture for US states, cities, and counties, including the benefits and obstacles of working with this more granular data.

Data Series Include:
• GDP by State, Metro, County 
• Personal Income by State, Metro, County
• Real Personal Income for State and Metro
• PCE by State
• Employment by State
• Population by State, Metro, and County 
• Housing permits by State and County
• American Community Survey 
• Home Prices by State and Metro 
• Regional Price Parities

12:30 PM - 1:45 PM Luncheon: The Nexus of Economic Commentary and Social Media

Joey Politano, Apricitas Economics
Kyla Scanlon, Bread 
Moderator: Yelena Maleyev, CBE, KPMG 

This session will feature two educators on social media as they discuss the intersection and interplay between online platforms that facilitate the creation and dissemination of economic analysis and opinions, and the users and audiences that consume and engage with them. This nexus has important implications for the public understanding of economic issues, the dynamics of economic discourse and debate and policymaking in the digital age.

1:55 PM - 2:55 PM 

 Track A International Trade and Finance 

Jen Bruner, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Adolfo L. Laurenti, CBE, Visa
Moderator: Kristy Howell, International Monetary Fund

The international statistics produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) describe the US economy’s relationship with the rest of the world. These statistics are presented in the international transactions accounts (Balance of Payments), the international investment position accounts, and in data on the operations of multinational companies. Session participants will learn what data are presented in these accounts, how they are structured, their key data sources, and how to access the data.

Data Series Include:
• Balance on current account
• Trade in goods
• Trade in services
• Primary Income
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Net Acquisition of financial assets
• International Investment Position
• Treasury international Capital (TIC) data
• Maturity Structure of Foreign Holdings of US debt securities

Track B A Tale of Two Sources: How to Measure Consumer Indebtedness    

Michael M. Chernousov, Federal Reserve Board
Joelle Scally, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Timothy J. Gill, CBE, American Financial Services Association
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation

Credit availability directly affects consumer spending, which in turn accounts for around two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP) or the total output of the U.S. economy.  This session will explain differences between the Federal Reserve’s Monthly Consumer Credit Report and the New York Federal Reserve’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Consumer Credit Report, also known as the monthly G.19 Release, tracks overall consumer credit outstanding both by lender type and by the prevailing terms (such as interest rates) on key types of consumer credit (defined as loans not secured by real estate). The Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit is constructed from a nationally representative random sample of Equifax credit report data. The data set can be used to calculate national and regional aggregate measures of individual- and household-level credit balances, and delinquencies by product type and for individuals and households.

Data Series Include:
• The Federal Reserve Board Consumer Credit (G.19) statistical release
• The New York Federal Reserve Bank Consumer Credit Panel (CCP)
• American Financial Services Association Consumer Credit Conditions Index

2:55 PM - 3:15 PM Networking Break

3:15 PM - 4:15 PM 

  Track A Corporate Profits - From the NIPAs to the S&P  

Michael Maragos, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Steve Gallagher, CBE, Societe Generale
Moderator: Rosemary Marcuss, Economist

This session will clarify the difference between economic profits as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and profits reported by corporations in their financial statements. A speaker from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will cover what is included or not included in the NIPAs, special terminology such as IVA and CCA, and the source data used to derive NIPA profits. A data user will focus on the difference between financial and tax profits and those reported in the NIPAs and the reasons for using all of these different measures for the best understanding of trends in corporate profitability.

  Track B Mechanics of Monetary Policy

Jane Ihrig, Federal Reserve Board 
Carl R. Tannenbaum, CBE, Northern Trust
Moderator: Dana Saporta, CBE, Economist

It is generally understood that the Federal Reserve sets monetary policy in the US. But deciding how “easy” or “tight” financial conditions should be is only part of the story.  This session describes the mechanics of how a given stance of monetary policy is executed. An official from the Federal Reserve Board and a veteran Fedwatcher from the private sector will offer their perspectives on the important operational regime change that has taken place at the Fed since 2008.
Data Series Include:
• Federal Reserve Reverse Repurchase Agreements
• Discount Window Lending
• Federal Funds Rate Target
• Effective Federal Funds Rate
• Interest Rate Paid on Reserves
• Currency in Circulation
• Securities Held Outright by the Federal Reserve
• Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks
• Central Bank Liquidity Swaps

4:25 PM - 5:25 PM The Future of U.S. Government Data - A Conversation with the Producers

William Wiatrowski, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Paul Farello, Associate Director for International Economics, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Rob Santos, Director, United States Census Bureau
Moderator: Michael W. Horrigan, CBE, W.E. Upjohn Institute 

5:30 PM - 6:30 PM Networking Reception

7:00 PM - 8:00 PM Networking Happy Hour

Tuesday, July 16

8:00 AM - 8:30 AM Continental Breakfast

8:30 AM - 9:30 AM

  Track A Financial Accounts - The Quarterly Data and the Stories They Tell 

Matt Guse, Federal Reserve Board 
Kenneth Kim, CBE, KPMG
Moderator: Kathleen Navin, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The Financial Accounts of the US offer a rich dataset on financial assets, liabilities, and balance sheets, providing an important framework for understanding financial positions of US households, organizations, and businesses. Formerly known as the Flow of Funds accounts, these data present sources and uses of funds for different sectors of the economy. Together with the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), they form the national accounts for the US. This presentation will describe the matrix structure of the accounts, the sectors and instruments included in the accounts, and the underlying source data.  The Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts (IMAs), compiled jointly with BEA, will also be covered. The Distributional Financial Accounts (DFAs), introduced in 2019, will be covered as well. The DFAs show the distribution of household wealth across income, age, generation, education and race.

Data Series Include:
• Household Net Worth
• Distribution of Household Net Worth by Generation
• Household Debt 
• Mortgage Debt
• Consumer Debt
• Business Debt

  Track B Measuring Consumer Spending

Harvey Davis, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Meagan Schoenberger, KPMG
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation

Representing over two-thirds of GDP, consumer spending is the engine that drives much of US GDP growth. The primary measure of consumer purchases of goods and services of people living in the United States is personal consumption expenditures (PCE). BEA produces the foremost measure of spending by U.S. consumers. Of current interest in today’s economy is what types of goods or services are on the rise or are falling in a post pandemic economy.  Consumers have been shifting spending from goods back to services since last year.   This session will provide perspective on the measurement of services and sources of data by the BEA and how to interpret current spending by consumers.

Data Series Include:
• Personal Income and Outlays
• Advanced Monthly Retail Trade 
• Quarterly Services Spending 
• Retail E-Commerce Sales 
• Monthly State Retail Sales (MSRS)

9:40 AM - 10:40 AM 

  Track A Productivity - The Key to Understanding Economic Growth 

Jenny Rudd, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aaron Betz, Congressional Budget Office
Moderator: Rich Wobbekind, CBE, University of Colorado Boulder

Understanding productivity is key to developing a long-run view of the relative strength of any economy. How labor, capital, energy, and material resources are used in concert with advances in production technology are critical to this understanding. This presentation will briefly review concepts behind the BLS measures of labor and multi-factor productivity and related series on outputs and inputs.  It will then discuss some of the properties of these series, both in the long run and over the business cycle.  The presentation will briefly analyze the relationship between productivity, output, labor hours, other inputs, compensation and unit labor costs.

Data Series Include:
• Labor Productivity 
• Unit Labor Costs
• Unit Nonlabor Payments
• Total Factor Productivity
• National Income and Product Accounts 
• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), 
• Current Employment Statistics (CES)
• Annual Survey of Manufacturers (ASM)

  Track B Cross-Country Data Comparisons 

Enrique Martínez García, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Adolfo L. Laurenti, CBE, Visa
Moderator: Maurine Haver, CBE, Haver Analytics

Working with economic data across countries poses a number of challenges given different conventions, methodologies, currencies, frequencies, and country characteristics.  Efforts of the IMF, UN and other international organizations to promote international standards have been constructive, but they occasionally have led to greater confusion when the same term is used for two entirely different concepts.   Speakers will address how to avoid the most frequently made mistakes and the areas requiring the most attention when making international comparisons.

10:40 AM - 11:00 AM Networking Break

11:00 AM - 12:00 PM

Track A Supply and Demand of Residential and Non-Residential Construction

      Aidan Smith, U.S. Census Bureau
    Molly Boesel, CoreLogic
    Moderator and Presenter: Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America 

Track B How to Borrow $34 Trillion: Financing the US Debt

Chris Kubeluis, U.S. Department of Treasury 
John Canavan, Oxford Economics 
Moderator: Dana Saporta, CBE, Economist

The US public debt has doubled in the past ten years and has more than quadrupled in the past 20. Today, at $34 trillion, the debt equates to over 120% of US nominal GDP.  This session describes the challenges of financing such a large and growing debt and explores the signals to be gleaned from Treasury auction results and Treasury market trading behavior.

Data Series Include:
• Net Interest Payments
• Fiscal Deficit
• Federal Debt Held by the Public
• Gross Federal Debt
• Mandatory Spending
• Discretionary Spending
• Sovereign Debt Spreads
• Treasury Auction Bid/Offer Spreads
• Treasury Auction Tails

12:05 PM - 1:10 PM Luncheon

Ellen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

1:15 PM - 1:35 PM Networking Break

1:35 PM - 2:35 PM Innovations in Economic Analysis

Kyle Hood, Director of Research, BEA Regional Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis 
Anna Wong, Chief US Economist, Bloomberg
Moderator: Michael W. Horrigan, CBE, W.E. Upjohn Institute 

This session will cover innovative methods for analyzing the value of information from alternative sources and how it compares to official data on a number of different dimensions. Anna Wong from Bloomberg will analyze a daily Fedspeak index that scores daily Bloomberg news tag of "Fedspeak", and builds scores for individual Fed officials. These scores allows tracking of the degree of disagreement within the committee. Bloomberg has developed an enhanced Taylor-rule like framework using the Fedspeak index. Even with 99 data surprises, the model so far this year had been ahead of the market in predicting movements in bond futures. 

Kyle Hood from BEA proposes a framework for quantifying the usefulness of alternative data sources relative to existing official sources. Specifically, BEA weighs the potential benefits of additional granularity and timeliness, while examining the accuracy associated with any new or improved estimates, relative to comparable accuracy produced in existing official statistics. BEA applies the methodology to employment estimates that incorporate data from a payroll processor in an improved prediction-based model. They find that incorporating payroll data can improve existing state-level estimates, especially for smaller state-industry cells. BEA also produces new county-level estimates that could provide more timely granular estimates than previously available, while also falling within an acceptable accuracy standard.

 2:45 PM - 3:45 PM Closing Address with Governor Kugler

Adriana D. Kugler, Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Moderator: Ellen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director, Morgan Stanley

 indicates that this session is part of the CBE core curriculum.