Program

Check back for updates!

Early career professionals and first-time attendees typically focus on Track A sessions. Seasoned professionals and repeat attendees look to Track B sessions for a deeper dive on specialized topics. Or….mix and match sessions from both tracks to customize your learning experience!

 

Thursday, June 23

3:00 PM - 4:00 PM  EMS Preview Webinar - "Economic Statistics from U.S. Government and Industry Sources" | Slides
Maurine Haver, CBE, Founder and President, Haver Analytics
Michael Horrigan, CBE, President, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, Chief Economist, National Retail Federation
Kathleen Navin, CBE, Director, U.S. Economics, IHS Markit
Dana Saporta, CBE, Economist
Rich Wobbekind, CBE, Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations, University of Colorado at Boulder

2:00 PM - 3:00 PM  EMS Preview Webinar: Seasonal Adjustment Webinar | Slides

Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, The Conference Board
Moderator: Maurine Haver, CBE, Founder and President, Haver Analytics

 

Monday, July 18

8:00 AM - 8:30 AM Continental Breakfast

8:30 AM - 8:35 AM Welcome Remarks

Dave Altig, NABE President, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

8:35 AM - 9:05 AM Economic Measurement: A Ticket for Your Success

Members of the 2022 EMS Planning Committee will provide a brief overview of this year’s seminar 
and provide tips on how participants can make the most of their time here.

9:10 AM - 10:20 AM

Track A  Measuring Employment — Using and Interpreting Employment Statistics    | Slides

Dorinda Allard, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rachel Krantz-Kent, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Moderator: Maurine Haver, CBE, Haver Analytics

The Employment Situation is watched closely by financial markets worldwide and is often cited as the most important US economic release.   This session will explain the differences between the two featured measures of employment and why they may occasionally provide very different views of employment in any given month.  Presenters from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will discuss the Current Employment Statistics Survey (aka the Establishment Survey or Payroll Employment), which is used to derive the monthly change in payroll employment and average hourly earnings and the Current Population Survey (aka the Household Survey), which is used to derive the unemployment rate, alternative measures of labor underutilization, and key labor force statistics for various demographic groups.   The presenters will cover each survey’s methodology, challenges such as business births and deaths for the establishment survey and common mistakes made in analyzing the employment report by reporters and bloggers.

Track B  Other Employment Indicators — A Look Beyond the Jobs Report

Skyla Skopovi, Bureau of Labor Statistics | Slides
Tamara Mickle, Bureau of Labor Statistics | Slides
Timothy O. Kestner, Virginia Employment Commission | Slides
Moderator: Rich Wobbekind, CBE, University of Colorado at  Boulder

This session will feature presentations on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Business Employment Dynamics and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance program. Data from these programs are widely used to measure economic and entrepreneurial activity in the labor market and the overall health of the economy. The presenters will provide an overview of each program, including the methodology, data published, the scope and source of the data, the news releases produced by the programs, and uses and users of the data.

 

10:20 AM - 10:40 AM  Networking Break

 

10:40 AM - 11:50 AM

Track A GDP and the National Accounts — The Building Blocks of the Economy   

Lisa Mataloni, Bureau of Economic Analysis | Slides
Kathleen Navin, CBE, S&P Global | Slides
Moderator: Robert Parker, Economist 

This session will cover the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), which are essential for understanding US economic activity.  Topics will include the structure of the NIPAs, the composition of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income, and the relationship between them, as well as important characteristics of real GDP and its components.   Session participants will learn how to properly calculate contributions to real growth and how to construct their own special aggregates using GDP components.

Track B  Construction & Housing Data — From Blueprints to the Fine Print

Ken Simonson, Associated General Contractors of America | Slides
Hamilton Fout, Fannie Mae | Slides
Moderator: Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors | Slides

This session begins with a structural foundation, covering statistics that track building permits and construction activity.  The discussion then digs deeper into the housing sector, describing the most popular home sales measures and making sense of the various ways house prices are reported.

11:50 AM - 1:05 PM Luncheon Keynote: The Challenge of Economic Reporting: Making Sense  of the Numbers and Telling the Story

Scott Horsley, Chief Economics Correspondent, NPR
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, Chief Economist, National Retail Federation 

1:10 PM - 2:20 PM 

Track A  Inflation — What it is and How it is Measured   

Steve Reed,  Bureau of Labor Statistics | Slides
Kyle Brown, Bureau of Economic Analysis | Slides
Moderator: Maurine Haver, CBE,  Haver Analytics

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the cost of living by measuring the change in price of a market basket of consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will present an overview of the CPI. Topics covered will include the conceptual foundation of the CPI, seasonal adjustment, quality adjustment, initiation of items into the sample, and the treatment of new goods and sample rotation. A representative from the BEA will follow, comparing and contrasting the CPI with the chain-type Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.  

Track B  Federal Reserve Districts — Research and Surveys
Ezra Karger, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | Slides
Gianluca Benigno, Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Slides
Santiago Pinto,  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond | Slides
Moderator: Jesus Canas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The Federal Reserve District Banks produce a vast array of regional reports and unique data series, many of which are not promoted or publicized. In this session, representatives from three Districts will discuss data and research produced for their region. Participants will have an opportunity to learn more about the unique regional data, current analysis and research projects produced at these District Banks.  

 

2:25 PM - 3:35 PM 

Track A International Transactions — A Balancing Act 

Jennifer Bruner, Bureau of Economic Analysis | Slides
Stephen Gallagher, CBE, Societe Generale | Slides
Moderator: Maria Borga, International Monetary Fund

The international statistics produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) describe the US economy’s relationship with the rest of the world. These statistics are presented in the international transactions accounts (Balance of Payments), the international investment position accounts, and in data on the operations of multinational companies. Session participants will learn what data are presented in these accounts, how they are structured, their key data sources, and how to access the data.

Track B  Energy — An Industry in Motion

John Staub, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) | Slides
Michael Plante, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas | Slides
Moderator: Martha Moore, CBE, American Chemistry Council 

 

3:35 PM - 3:55 PM Networking Break

3:55 PM - 5:05 PM

Track A Corporate Profits — From the NIPAs to the S&P  

Dick Rippe, CBE, Evercore | Slides
Kate Pinard, Bureau of Economic Analysis | Slides
Moderator: Rosemary Marcuss, Economist

This session will clarify the difference between economic profits as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and profits reported by corporations in their financial statements. A speaker from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will cover what is included or not included in the NIPAs, special terminology such as IVA and CCA, and the source data used to derive NIPA profits. A data user will focus on the difference between financial and tax profits and those reported in the NIPAs and the reasons for using all of these different measures for the best understanding of trends in corporate profitability.

Track B  Retail Sales — Measuring Consumer Behavior

Scott Scheleur,  U.S. Census Bureau | Slides
Sarah Wolfe, Morgan Stanley | Slides
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation

  

5:15 PM - 6:15 PM Networking Reception
Eno Wine Bar
2810 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20007

7:00 PM - 8:30 PM Networking Happy Hour
Mr. Smith's of Georgetown
3205 Water Street, NW
Washington, DC 20007

 

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Tuesday,  July 19

 

7:30 AM - 8:00 AM Continental Breakfast

8:00 AM - 9:10 AM

Track A Financial Accounts — The Quarterly Data and the Stories They Tell 

 Matthew Guse, Federal Reserve Board | Slides
Kenneth Kim, CBE, KPMG | Slides
Moderator: Kathleen Navin, CBE, S&P Global

The Financial Accounts of the US, also known as the Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA), present sources and uses of funds for different sectors of the economy. Together with the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), they form the national accounts for the US. This presentation will describe the matrix structure of the accounts, the sectors and instruments included in the accounts, and the underlying source data.  The Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts (IMA),  compiled jointly with BEA, will also be covered.

Track B Wages and Compensation —Distinctions with a Difference

Dave Talan, Bureau of Labor Statistics | Slides 
Emy Sok, Bureau of Labor Statistics | Slides
Moderator: Michael Horrigan, CBE, W.E. Upjohn Institute

This session will present an overview of the major wage, earnings, and compensation measures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These include measures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey; the Current Population Survey (CPS); the Employment Cost Index (ECI) Program; and measures from the BLS Office of Productivity. Topics covered include the scope and measurement goals of the series, the methodological backgrounds on their construction, and trends in what the series are telling us about wages, earnings, and compensation.  

 

9:15 AM - 10:25 AM

Track A Productivity — The Key to Understanding Economic Growth  

Chris Sparks, Bureau of Labor Statistics | Slides
Aaron Betz, Congressional Budget Office | Slides
Moderator: Rich Wobbekind, CBE, University of Colorado at Boulder

This presentation will briefly review concepts behind the BLS measures of labor and multi-factor productivity and related series on outputs and inputs.  It will then discuss some of the properties of these series, both in the long run and over the business cycle.  The presentation will briefly analyze the relationship between productivity, output, labor hours, other inputs, compensation and unit labor costs.

Track B Business and Consumer Sentiment – Measurement and Uses 

Dana Peterson, Conference Board | Slides
Joanne W. Hsu, University of Michigan | Slides
Moderator: Dana Saporta, CBE, Economist

This session will cover a selection of business and consumer sentiment statistics frequently monitored by business economists.  The challenges of measuring attitudes about present conditions and expectations for the future will be discussed. This session also considers how these types of statistics are used in forecasting changes in economic conditions. 

10:25 AM - 10:45 AM Networking Break

10:45 AM - 11:55 AM Innovations in Economic Measurement

John Stevens, Federal Reserve Board | Slides
Roberto Rigobon, MIT Sloan School of Management
Moderator: Michael Horrigan, CBE, W.E. UpJohn Institute

This session describes how technological advances are helping to revolutionize our understanding of the economy. Improvements to classic macroeconomic statistics will be discussed as well as efforts to produce entirely new types of data. 

12:00 PM - 1:05 PM  Luncheon Keynote: Monetary Policy – Evolution and Execution

Donald Kohn, Robert V. Roosa Chair in International Economics and Senior Fellow in Economic Studies, Brookings Institution; former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Introduction:  Dana Saporta, CBE, Economist

1:05 PM - 1:20 PM Break

 

1:20 PM - 2:25 PM Keys to Understanding Today's Labor Markets

Nela Richardson, ADP | Slides
Jared Bernstein, Council of Economic Advisers | Slides
Moderator: Michael Horrigan, CBE, W.E. Upjohn Institute

2:30 PM - 3:15 PM The Road Ahead for the Auto Sector 

Elaine Buckberg, Chief Economist, General Motors 
Introduction: Maurine Haver, Founder and President, Haver Analytics

3:20 PM - 4:20 PM Maintaining the Quality and Integrity of U.S. Government Data 

William Beach, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mary Bohman, Acting Director and Deputy Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Robert Santos, Director, United States Census Bureau
Moderator: Jeanna Smialek, Federal Reserve and Economics Reporter, The New York Times

 

Timely and reliable economic statistics are key to the work of both economists and journalists as they endeavor to grasp and crystallize the ever-evolving economic situation for their audiences. Threats to high-quality economic statistics include insufficient budgetary funding for the federal statistical system, resulting in cuts to programs and survey samples, and reduced survey response rates. The dynamic U.S. economy requires statistical agencies to constantly be modernizing, researching, and investing to ensure measurements keep pace. Join the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) and the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) for a panel discussion with senior officials from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau to learn how the agencies are innovating and evolving in a time of growing budgetary and political challenges.

 

 indicates that this session is part of the CBE core curriculum.