Session Descriptions

 

 

Thursday, June 8

EMS Preview Webinar #1: Economic Statistics from U.S. Government and Industry Sources

Preview Webinar #1 Slides

The webinar delivers an overview of the data provided by the U.S. federal statistical system with a special focus on those to be covered during the Economic Measurement Seminar (EMS). This webinar will also highlight examples of common misinterpretations of the data and the concepts to focus on in the upcoming EMS sessions. 

 

Thursday, June 29

EMS Preview #2 Webinar: Why Are Economic Data Seasonally Adjusted?

 

Preview #2 Webinar Slides 

Seasonality is a common feature of economic data and if not properly addressed, it can cloud our judgment about what the data are telling us. Seasonal adjustment methodologies have been developed to remove these predictable patterns to reveal the underlying trend and cycle. When is seasonal adjustment appropriate? What are the best methods? What are the pitfalls and challenges in analyzing seasonal and seasonally adjusted data? This session will look at these issues from a user’s perspective to help develop a deeper appreciation for working with economic indicators.

 

Monday, July 17

8:00 AM - 8:30 AM Continental Breakfast

8:30 AM - 8:35 AM Welcome Remarks 

Julia Coronado, NABE President; MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC

8:35 AM - 9:05 AM Mastering Economic Measurement: The Superpower of Great Economists

Michael Horrigan, CBE, W.E. Upjohn Institute
Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation
Kathleen Navin, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Moderator: Julia Coronado, NABE President; MacroPolicy Perspectives, LLC

9:10 AM - 10:20 AM

Track A Measuring Employment - Using and Interpreting Employment Statistics 

Nic Johnson, Bureau of Labor Statistics
John Stewart, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Moderator: Maurine Haver, CBE, Haver Analytics

The Employment Situation is watched closely by financial markets worldwide and is often cited as the most important US economic release.   This session will explain the differences between the two featured measures of employment and why they may occasionally provide very different views of employment in any given month.  Presenters from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will discuss the Current Employment Statistics Survey (aka the Establishment Survey or Payroll Employment), which is used to derive the monthly change in payroll employment and average hourly earnings and the Current Population Survey (aka the Household Survey), which is used to derive the unemployment rate, alternative measures of labor underutilization, and key labor force statistics for various demographic groups.   The presenters will cover each survey’s methodology, challenges such as business births and deaths for the establishment survey and common mistakes made in analyzing the employment report by reporters and bloggers.

Track B Other Employment Indicators - A Look Beyond the Jobs Report  

Timothy O. Kestner, Virginia Employment Commission
Erik Friesenhahn, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Larry A. Akinyooye, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Moderator: Rich Wobbekind, CBE, University of Colorado at Boulder

This session will feature presentations on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Business Employment Dynamics and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance program. Data from these programs are widely used to measure economic and entrepreneurial activity in the labor market and the overall health of the economy. The presenters will provide an overview of each program, including the methodology, data published, the scope and source of the data, the news releases produced by the programs, and uses and users of the data.

10:40 AM - 11:50 AM

Track A GDP and the National Accounts - The Building Blocks of the Economy 

Lisa Mataloni, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Ryan Sweet, Oxford Economics
Kathleen Navin, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

This session will cover the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), which are essential for understanding US economic activity.  Topics will include the structure of the NIPAs, the composition of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income, and the relationship between them, as well as important characteristics of real GDP and its components.   Session participants will learn how to properly calculate contributions to real growth and how to construct their own special aggregates using GDP components.

Track B Housing — Ownership Trends and Affordability Issues

Matt Streeter, Census Bureau
Jessica Lautz, National Association of REALTORS®️
Moderator: Mark Palim, Fannie Mae

11:50 AM - 1:05 PM Luncheon: Making Sense -- and Use -- of Economic Data: A Journalist's Perspective

Michael McKee, International Economics and Policy Correspondent, Bloomberg TV and Radio
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation

1:10 PM - 2:20 PM 

Track A Inflation - What It Is and How It Is Measured 

Steve Reed, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kyle Brown, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Moderator: Maurine Haver, CBE, Haver Analytics

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the cost of living by measuring the change in price of a market basket of consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will present an overview of the CPI. Topics covered will include the conceptual foundation of the CPI, seasonal adjustment, quality adjustment, initiation of items into the sample, and the treatment of new goods and sample rotation. A representative from the BEA will follow, comparing and contrasting the CPI with the chain-type Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.  

  Track B Federal Reserve Districts - Research and Surveys

Emily Kerr, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 
Emily Pollard, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Scott Wolla, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Moderator: Jesus Canas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The Federal Reserve District Banks produce a vast array of regional reports and unique data series, many of which are not promoted or publicized. In this session, representatives from three Districts will discuss data and research produced for their region. Participants will have an opportunity to learn more about the unique regional data, current analysis and research projects produced at these District Banks.  

2:25 PM - 3:35 PM 

  Track A International Transactions - A Balancing Act 

Jennifer Bruner, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Steve Gallagher, CBE, Societe Generale
Moderator: Dragana Ostojic, International Monetary Fund

The international statistics produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) describe the US economy’s relationship with the rest of the world. These statistics are presented in the international transactions accounts (Balance of Payments), the international investment position accounts, and in data on the operations of multinational companies. Session participants will learn what data are presented in these accounts, how they are structured, their key data sources, and how to access the data.

Track B Measuring the Energy Transition

Femi Elegbede, U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, CBE, Third Way
Moderator: Kenneth Kim, CBE, KPMG

This session will cover the promising landscape for energy transition in the U.S.  Which sectors will benefit from the transition?  Will it be solar, wind, hydrogen or some other.  The fundamental shift to clean energy advanced by Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and other legislation is accelerating the adoption of clean energy in the U.S.  Multinational corporations have also taken notice, making the U.S. the top destination for greenfield FDI in renewable energy.  Learn more about industry trends, the regulatory landscape, employment and market opportunities, and the energy supply chain from the presenters.

3:35 PM - 3:55 PM Networking Break

3:55 PM - 5:05 PM 

  Track A Corporate Profits - From the NIPAs to the S&P 

Kate Pinard, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Dick Rippe, CBE, Evercore
Moderator: Rosemary Marcuss, Economist

This session will clarify the difference between economic profits as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and profits reported by corporations in their financial statements. A speaker from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will cover what is included or not included in the NIPAs, special terminology such as IVA and CCA, and the source data used to derive NIPA profits. A data user will focus on the difference between financial and tax profits and those reported in the NIPAs and the reasons for using all of these different measures for the best understanding of trends in corporate profitability.

  Track B Measuring Consumer Spending

Jeff Barnett, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Sarah Wolfe, Morgan Stanley
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz, CBE, National Retail Federation

The primary measure of consumer purchases of goods and services of people living in the United States is personal consumption expenditures (PCE). BEA produces the foremost measure of spending by U.S. consumers. Of current interest in today’s economy is what types of goods or services are on the rise or are falling in a post pandemic economy.  Consumers have been shifting spending from goods back to services since last year.   This session will provide perspective on the measurement of services and sources of data by the BEA and how to interpret current spending by consumers.

 5:15 PM -6:15 PM Networking Reception

6:30 PM - 8:00 PM Networking Happy Hour

 

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Tuesday, July 18

8:00 AM - 8:30 AM Continental Breakfast

8:30 AM - 9:40 AM

  Track A Financial Accounts - The Quarterly Data and the Stories They Tell 

Matthew Hoops, Federal Reserve Board
Kenneth Kim, CBE, KPMG
Moderator: Kathleen Navin, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The Financial Accounts of the US, also known as the Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA), present sources and uses of funds for different sectors of the economy. Together with the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), they form the national accounts for the US. This presentation will describe the matrix structure of the accounts, the sectors and instruments included in the accounts, and the underlying source data.  The Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts (IMA), compiled jointly with BEA, will also be covered.

  Track B Wages and Compensation - Distinctions with a Difference

Dave Talan, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Michael Horrigan, CBE, W.E. Upjohn Institute
Moderator: George Kahn, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Retired

This session will present an overview of the major wage, earnings, and compensation measures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These include measures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey; the Current Population Survey (CPS); the Employment Cost Index (ECI) Program; and measures from the BLS Office of Productivity. Topics covered include the scope and measurement goals of the series, the methodological backgrounds on their construction, and trends in what the series are telling us about wages, earnings, and compensation.  

9:45 AM - 10:55 AM 

  Track A Productivity - The Key to Understanding Economic Growth 

Chris Sparks, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aaron Betz, Congressional Budget Office
Moderator: Rich Wobbekind, CBE, University of Colorado at Boulder

This presentation will briefly review concepts behind the BLS measures of labor and multi-factor productivity and related series on outputs and inputs.  It will then discuss some of the properties of these series, both in the long run and over the business cycle.  The presentation will briefly analyze the relationship between productivity, output, labor hours, other inputs, compensation and unit labor costs.

Track B Industrial Production - The Outlook for Manufacturing

Aaron Flaaen, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Chad Moutray, CBE, National Association of Manufacturers
Moderator: Keith B. Belton, American Chemistry Council

The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) has released Industrial Production (IP), a measure of domestic output of US manufacturing, mining and utility industries, since 1922, making it one of the longest economic data series available for tracking the business cycle.  It is the only source of consistent industry data on a NAICS basis and provides output of semiconducter /circuit board output back to 1954.  This session covers  how the data are constructed, benchmarked and revised annually as well as associated data included in the IP release, especially capacity utilization.   

10:55 AM - 11:15 AM Networking Break

11:15 AM - 12:25 PM

Track A Business and Consumer Sentiment - Measurement and Uses

Dana M. Peterson, The Conference Board
Joanne W. Hsu, University of Michigan
Moderator: Dana Saporta, CBE, Economist

This session will cover a selection of business and consumer sentiment statistics frequently monitored by business economists.  The challenges of measuring attitudes about present conditions and expectations for the future will be discussed. This session also considers how these types of statistics are used in forecasting changes in economic conditions.

Track B Impact of Demographics on Economic Growth and the Labor Market 

Wendy Edelberg, Brookings Institution
Angelica Menchaca, Census Bureau
Moderator: Michael Horrigan, CBE, W.E. Upjohn Institute

This session will explore the impact of COVID and reduced immigration levels on the US labor force. Important demographic questions on the future of employment will also be discussed: Can automation be used to offset the expected slowdown in population growth? Will workers' skills keep pace with the demand for skilled labor? What will be the role of immigration, particularly skilled immigration?

12:30 PM - 1:35 PM Luncheon - A New Variant: The Unique Nature of the COVID Recession

Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist, Nationwide
Moderator: Julia Coronado, NABE President; MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC

No two recessions are exactly alike, but the dramatic economic downturn in early 2020 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic was especially unusual. In her luncheon remarks, Kathy Bostjancic will focus on business cycle analysis and the challenges posed by the unique characteristics of the latest recession.

1:35 PM - 1:55 PM Break

1:55 PM - 3:05 PM Innovations in Economic Analysis

Alberto Cavallo, Associate Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School
Anna Wong, Chief Economist, Bloomberg
Moderator: Dana Saporta, CBE, Economist

Panelists from academia and the financial media will describe innovations that are helping to enhance our understanding of the economy. Complements to classic macroeconomic statistics will be discussed, as well as efforts to produce entirely new types of data. Technological advances in analyzing macro- and corporate-level data also will be addressed. 

3:10 PM - 4:30 PM The Future of U.S Government Statistics - A Conversation with the Data Producers
Session hosted in partnership with the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW)

Vipin Arora, Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Robert Santos, Director, United States Census Bureau
William Wiatrowski, Acting Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Moderator: Rebecca Baker, Editor-at-Large, Bloomberg Industry Group

 

 

 

 

 indicates that this session is part of the CBE core curriculum.