Annual Report of the NABE President

It is hard to believe that the changing of the NABE guard is only two months away.  In my term as president of NABE I have been deeply honored to serve this wonderful organization and to serve with a truly dedicated, highly capable, and professional group of individuals.  In a period of economic uncertainty that is unprecedented in our professional careers, it has been an especially challenging year for those “on point” interpreting economic developments and providing guidance to our internal or external clients.  Despite this professionally challenging environment, the NABE Board and our extended circle of NABE leaders “dug deep” to maintain their commitment to the organization, put in the hours needed, and lent the intellectual and creative energy that contributed to our success today and in building a stronger foundation for NABE’s future.  We are all in their debt.  

The “changing of the guard” metaphor is even more apt this year, as Susan Doolittle, our outstanding executive director of the last 15 years is retiring at the conclusion of the annual meeting in St. Louis this October.  We will give her a rousing send off!  I personally want to thank her for her outstanding service to me as president and to NABE, and invite you to join me in expressing our profound appreciation for her tireless work on behalf of NABE. 

All I can say to Tom Beers is – those women’s size 8’s will seem like implausibly large shoes to fill!  Of course, Tom is Susan’s replacement as executive director.  He joined the NABE office July 16 and has jumped in with both feet.  I chaired the search committee that began its work last fall by selecting an executive search firm. The committee (comprised of Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Maurine Haver, Rosemary Marcuss, Lynn Reaser, and Susan Doolittle) was presented with an outstanding list of well-qualified candidates. Following two days of interviews in May the committee unanimously selected Tom and the NABE board quickly approved his selection.  Tom has some great ideas for raising the value of membership in NABE!  Please join me in congratulating Tom and in welcoming him to NABE and please offer your support to him over the coming years! 

Tom will have the benefit of Susan’s sage advice and the support of an outstanding NABE office crew.  Colette Brissett and Chris Jonas work efficiently and tirelessly, to bring you the best quality in products and services.  Please join me in thanking each of them for executing our mission with exemplary professionalism and economy.

I have been particularly impressed by the dedication and monumental efforts expended by our vice president, Lynn Reaser, on behalf of NABE across a range of areas— membership, finance, and surveys — that by custom fall to the vice president.  I have no doubt that as president, Lynn will provide outstanding leadership and vigorously work to build a stronger organization that will better serve our members and advance our mission.  She will be partnering with our incoming vice president, Rich Wobbekind.  As the former president of AUBER (Association for University Business and Economic Research) and as the current associate dean for MBA and Executive Programs at the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado at Boulder, he brings both association leadership experience and professional education experience to his new role at NABE. For the past year he has chaired NABE’s Education Committee and will continue to lead the development and implementation of our initiatives in this area. 

Education Initiative

NABE is embarking on an initiative designed to make NABE a life-long partner for those who use economics in their work. One of the key elements of this initiative will be the design of a life-long learning curriculum and the assembling of course offerings, either developed internally or by partnering with other institutions, that will support the continued professional and career development of our members. This effort began earlier this year when the NABE Education Committee selected a consultant to assist us in launching this initiative.  We designed and carried out a survey of the NABE membership, and evaluated roughly 1,000 responses.  We then set about to define a body of knowledge or BOK – a map if you will, that shows where specific types of economic training can add value across the business and policy landscape.  This will serve as a basis for generating a professional and career development curriculum.  We held a Professional and Career Development Summit in Washington DC in June.  With the aid our of consultants and the benefit of the results of our recently completed member survey, a diverse group of NABE members met to help define this BOK and generate ideas for how to effectively deploy the BOK in designing a life-long learning curriculum that will benefit our members.  Many thanks to those who gave up their weekend to assist in this effort! 

A lot of hard work remains to be done to see this effort come to fruition.  I would like to see the eventual establishment of NABE University, the virtual training place to which those who use economics in their work will come for training to enhance their professional and career goals.  I know that Lynn and Rich are committed to developing a comprehensive plan and expanding NABE’s course offerings, as part of this broader effort.

NABE Annual Meeting and Policy Conference

Wow!  You have to be impressed with the line-ups we have put together for our conferences.  If you haven’t attended, you are definitely missing out.  Our 50th annual meeting held last October in Washington, led by Lynn Reaser, Kevin Kliesen, Richard Brown, and Diane Swonk, was a huge success.  We had over 430 attendees and outstanding timely sessions on a range of topics, including headliners like Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Lawrence Summers discussing the ongoing financial crisis and policies to deal with it.  The March Policy Conference, chaired by Bill Strauss, was also a huge success, with 382 in attendance.  Attendees heard from newly installed administration officials such as Christina Romer, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, and heard Richmond Fed President Jeff Lacker voice concerns over the breadth of policy actions then underway.  The 51st annual meeting in St. Louis is similarly shaping up to be another outstanding event, led by Robert Fry, Kevin Kleisen, and Charles Steindel.  Diane Swonk again is spearheading the effort to garner the sponsorships that are so critical to keeping these meetings affordable for our members, and an important source of revenue to NABE. 

Chapters

One of the more enjoyable parts of this job has been visiting with our chapters.  Thus far, I have been fortunate to be invited to speak at Richmond, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Cleveland, and New York, with other talks scheduled for Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Dallas, and Houston.   Activity is vibrant in most chapters. Chapter presidents held a teleconference in January 2009 led by Sara Johnson, chair of the board’s committee on chapters, to discuss issues of common interest.  A new student chapter was organized at the University of California at Irvine this spring, and we’ve tasked board members with working with their alma maters to set up student chapters.

Skills Seminars

Thanks to Oral Capps, our NABE instructor, two skills seminars were offered this year: Advanced Statistical Techniques for Economic Forecasting at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in October 2008 and Econometrics for the Business Analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in August 2009.  In addition, several skills sessions were hosted at our annual meeting and policy conference on such topics as data visualization and financial engineering.  Sessions on career advancement and dealing with the media are scheduled for the 2009 annual meeting.

NABE Foundation

Under the capable leadership of Jack Kleinhenz, the NABE Foundation sponsored several activities.  We conducted our fifth professional development seminar (PDS) at the Georgetown University Conference Center.  Program chairs Rosemary Marcuss and Paul Thomas, along with the PDS committee of Richard DeKaser, Maurine Haver, Duncan Meldrum, Stuart Mackintosh, John Silvia, and Chris Swann developed a successful program; and planning has already begun for next year's offering.  The Foundation provided 13 scholarships for entry-level and mid-career business economists to attend the PDS. The Foundation will also provide scholarships to attend the annual meeting.  With the help of Mike Gill, the Foundation completed its second annual appeal in 2008, helping to build a strong base for future Foundation activities.  The NABE nominating committee also selected the initial NABE Foundation Board, which is described elsewhere.

Membership

Even though we attracted over 500 new members, membership is down about 5%, as we suspect the recession contributed to a decline in renewals over the past year. Recognizing the toll this tough environment is taking on membership, I asked the board to approve a one-time, one-year free membership renewal for NABE members who lost their primary employment.  Slipping retention rates continue to be a challenge.  As noted above, Lynn Reaser has assembled a hard-working team to implement a variety of new marketing initiatives to assist in reversing the membership decline. I know this is also a priority of Tom Beers’ and he will be working closely with Lynn and the membership committee over the coming year, with an initial focus on dramatically improving NABE’s Web-based employment listings accessible to members.

Get Connected

Created by former board member Chris Swann, the Get Connected (GC) initiative was designed and launched in 2008 to engage more early and mid-career professionals.  Membership has quickly expanded to 168!  The GC community has created a series of programs, including an online professional network via LinkedIn, skills sessions, and networking events.  One such GC event is the career advancement session to be held at our upcoming annual meeting featuring Marc Cenedella, founder and CEO of TheLadders.com.  GC is an important outreach to new and prospective members that will facilitate stronger NABE connections, especially for younger members, and help improve membership retention rates over time. 

Mentoring Program

We launched the NABE mentoring program under the leadership of NABE board member Kim Flood with the goal of promoting the professional development of newer members and facilitating professional relationships between newer members and veteran members. The NABE Mentoring Pilot Program has paired 17 senior NABE members with new or junior NABE members.  All members of the national NABE may apply for the program.

Surveys

Ten “regular” surveys of the NABE membership were conducted this year, and we re-designed the survey write-ups to give them an appropriately modern and fresh look that is easier to read and digest.  These surveys continue to gain in reputation with expanded media coverage as the population at large increasingly looks to NABE for its assessments of the economy and economic policy. 

NABE Board members and staff work intensely to design and implement these surveys: the Industry Survey, under Sara Johnson’s leadership, the NABE Outlook Survey led by Bill Strauss, and the Policy Survey led by Doug Duncan.  Survey team members include Richard DeKaser, Rajeev Dhawan, Shawn DuBravac, Michael Frantoni, Robert Fry, Parul Jain, Charles Steindel, and Paul Thomas.

Statistics Committee

Maurine Haver, as chair of our Statistics Committee, convened three meetings with NABE members and the heads of the federal statistical agencies.  She also led initiatives to raise the level of awareness regarding federal government statistics budgets that have been under pressure during the Congressional appropriations process.  As many of you know, the timeliness and quality of economic statistics is the only issue for which NABE as a professional association, takes on an advocacy role. Bob Parker wrote articles for Business Economics.  This joins NABE’s online Economic Links in providing NABE members with timely economic statistics sources and updates.  In March of this year we conducted a teleconference on “The 2012 Revision to the North American Industrial Classification System.” 

Allied Social Science Association (ASSA) Meeting, San Francisco

Kevin Kliesen coordinated NABE's participation in the ASSA meetings again this year.  We sponsored two relevant and timely sessions: “Dating U.S. Business Cycle Peaks and Troughs” and “Long-run Economic Challenges: A Federal Reserve Perspective.” 

NABE Publications and Communications

This January, under the leadership of Charles Steindel, we completed the switchover to Palgrave as the publisher of our quarterly flagship publication Business Economics.  This gave the journal a new scholarly look and introduced a new article review and management system that our editor, Bob Crow implemented quickly.  This new arrangement increases our marketing reach and saves considerable staff time in the NABE office.  NABE News, under the editorship of Pam Ginsbach continues to keep members abreast of breaking NABE developments with more in-depth pieces than typically found in our E-zine “Idea Link.” With the help of the statistics committee, NABE News added “Data Points” a feature that highlights new resources and developments in economic statistics.  Along with our press officer Melissa Golding and webmaster Bruce Kratofil, we have an outstanding team providing timely, useful, and insightful content to NABE members and the media.

Financial Report

Our Finance Committee Chair, Lynn Reaser, has led the preparation of quarterly budget and investment reports for NABE and the Foundation.  We will report these results to you at the upcoming business meeting held at our annual meeting in October.  Our financial condition deteriorated as the stock market headed lower over the past year, as membership slipped, and as we incurred some unusual expenses.  Our financial condition has rebounded somewhat, with the upturn in the stock market. Fortunately, our investment account guidelines are fairly conservative, with a 50% target percentage for equities and the rest bonds.  The two unusual expenses incurred this year were our search for, and hiring of a new executive director, and the launch of the education initiative.  The former was not an option, and the latter was the kind of investment in NABE’s future that did not make sense to delay.  Our bylaws provide for proper governance and auditing conducted on an annual basis.  The annual audit of NABE finances for 2008 is currently underway. Thanks to Mary Ann Greenwood who serves as chair of the Audit Committee.

Roundtables Host Teleconferences and Assist Meeting Planning

Thanks to the efforts of our roundtable chairs and Rich Brown, NABE has hosted 20 teleconferences through August of this year with hundreds of NABE-member attendees.  Our roundtables are also active in organizing sessions for our annual meeting and our policy conference.  Their role in the selection of topics and speakers is invaluable in getting the right topic and presenters in front of our members. In addition, NABE hosted general teleconferences on hot topics related to the credit crisis, monetary policy, international developments and healthcare, with several more teleconferences in the planning stages.

International Outreach

NABE broadened its horizons in the past year by reaching out to similar organizations in Canada and Europe to investigate avenues for cooperation.  We also added expert speakers to discuss trends in Europe, Canada, and Asia to two of our Outlook teleconferences, rather than focus just on the United States.  In addition, we partnered with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) to conduct a survey of US firms’ plans for foreign direct investment.  Led by NABE board member Parul Jain, this effort assisted UNCTAD in the preparation of its 2009 World Investment Prospects Report and culminated in a teleconference held in July 2009.  Finally, plans are afoot to send 15-20 NABE economists to Beijing and Shanghai in 2010 to meet with Chinese economists and to bring a similar delegation back to the United States.  

Forecast Auction Exercise

This year, under the leadership of my predecessor, Ellen Hughes-Cromwick and Charlie Plott of Caltech, NABE conducted five Forecast Auction Exercises (FAE).  Run in conjunction with Plott’s Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science (EEPS), the FAE is a new approach to collecting consensus forecasts. NABE outlook panelists who participate are given an initial allocation of a funding pool (house money) to purchase and place tickets on a range of possible outcomes.  The house money is then distributed to participants in proportion to their share of the winning tickets. The FAE has great potential to improve on the typical consensus “mean” forecast because the results provide the entire probability distribution of possible outcomes as perceived by the participants.  Funding for these exercises was provided in part by the NABE Foundation through the generosity of a handful of donors, and in part, by EEPS.  NABE is seeking additional sponsorship resources to continue these exercises. 

Code of Conduct

It is my firm view that one important thing that any professional association ought to do for its members is to maintain a professional code of conduct that establishes standards for its members and the broader profession.  It serves as a statement of the expectations for professional conduct that serves to remind our members of what is and is not acceptable and it can be a source of pride to members who embrace it.  NABE does not have such a code of conduct, and it seems to me that the adoption of one will help to complete NABE as a professional association worthy of broad respect.  I have appointed an ad hoc committee, led by Doug Duncan, to review the issues surrounding such a code, and to bring to the board in the near future a concrete proposal for its consideration. 

In closing, I want to acknowledge and express my gratitude for the continued good counsel and work on behalf of NABE of some of our other past presidents who were not previously mentioned.  Dick Berner served on the nominating committee and has been of great value to me as a sounding board.  Carl Tannenbaum similarly served on the nominating committee and as a continuing board member has been a voice of great reason.  Frank Schott continues to devote considerable energy to the NABE Foundation and has been a source of encouragement to the NABE leadership to pursue the education initiative. 

NABE will be well led with Lynn, Rich, and Tom in the wheelhouse next year.  I am confident that with the assistance of our excellent board of directors and the support of our members, NABE will continue to provide an outstanding value proposition for our members, and will prosper in the years to come.  

Thank you again for the opportunity to serve as NABE president.

Chris P. Varvares
NABE President

Share: