NABE Outlook December 2012: NABE Panel Expects Modest But Accelerating Growth in 2013

Summary: “The panelists expect modest growth in the economy in 2013 as a whole, which accelerates steadily as the year progresses,” said Dr. Nayantara Hensel, Chair of the NABE Outlook Survey and Professor of Industry and Business at National Defense University. “The panelists forecast little improvement in consumption growth, significantly reduced growth in investments in nonresidential structures, equipment, and software, and reduced growth in corporate profits and industrial production. Nevertheless, on a positive note, the panelists suggest that the improvement in the housing market is likely to continue. They do not anticipate a significant increase in inflation next year and forecast some improvement in the labor market. Although the bulk of the panelists suggest that Hurricane Sandy may reduce fourthquarter 2012 GDP growth, it is likely to increase first-quarter 2013 GDP growth. The panelists also suggest some reduction in the US 2013 federal budget deficit relative to the 2012 federal budget deficit. A portion of the panelists expect that the European financial crisis will worsen in that Spain, Italy, and Ireland may require bailout packages (or additional bailout packages) and one-fifth of the panelists suggest that Greece could break away from the euro currency in 2013.”

Highlights

Dec 2012 NABE Outlook Details (Members only)

With their permission, NABE panelists who responded to the December, 2012 NABE Outlook survey are:

Michael R. Englund, Action Economics, LLC

Thomas Kevin Swift, American Chemistry Council

Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

Richard Yamarone, Bloomberg, LP

Elena Bondarenko, Cassidy Turley

Bill Watkins / Jeff Speakes / Dan Hamilton, Center for Economic Research

and Forecasting at California Lutheran University

Constantine Soras, CGS Economic Consulting, Inc.

Esmael Adibi, Chapman University

Xiaobing Shuai, Chmura Economics & Analytics

Jan Reid, Coast Economic Consulting

Robert Fry, DuPont

Susan Sterne, EAA Inc.

James W. Kleckley, East Carolina University

James P. Meil, Eaton Corporation

Anne Ramstetter Wenzel, Econosystems

Michael R. Paslawskyj, FDIC

Gene Huang, FedEx Corporation

Lynn Reaser, Fermanian Business and Economic Institute

Brian Wesbury / Robert Stein, First Trust Advisors

Jenny Lin, Ford Motor Co.

Rajeev Dhawan, Georgia State University

Gary Ciminero, GLC Financial Economics

J. Paul Horne, Independent International Market Economist

Jeff Werling / Margaret McCarthy, Inforum - University of Maryland

John Pope, Investment Economics

Richard Rippe, ISI Group

Sandy Batten / Robert Mellman, JP Morgan

Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz & Associates

Brian R. Horrigan, Loomis Sayles & Co, LP

Chris Varvares, Macroeconomic Advisers

Parul Jain, MacroFin Analytics

Diane Swonk / Adolfo Laurenti, Mesirow Financial

Albert E. DePrince, Jr., Middle Tennessee State University

Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics

Joel L. Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors

Stephen Latin-Kasper, National Truck Equipment Association

David W. Berson, Nationwide Insurance

Charles Steindel, New Jersey Department of the Treasury

Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB

Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust

James F. Smith, Parsec Financial

Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale

Steve Taddie, Stellar Capital Management

James Marple, TD Bank

Martin A. Regalia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Sean Snaith, University of Central Florida

John Silvia, Wells Fargo

Jay N. Woodworth, Woodworth Holdings, LTD

December 2012

Details (Members only)

The December 2012 NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts from a panel of 48 professional forecasters. (See last page for listing.) The survey, covering the outlook for 2012 and 2013, was conducted November 15–November 28, 2012. The NABE Outlook originated in 1965 and is one of three surveys conducted by NABE; the others are the NABE Industry Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for those who use economics in their work. NABE has 2,400 members and 35 chapters nationwide. Dr. Nayantara Hensel, National Defense University; Cecilia Hermansson, Swedbank; Richard Wobbekind, University of Colorado; and Clare Zempel, Zempel Strategic, conducted the analysis for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the analysts and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. This report may be reprinted in whole or in part with a proper citation to NABE.