41st NABE Annual
Meeting
12th IFABE Meeting
Hyatt Regency Embarcadero, San Francisco CA
September 25-29, 1999
Targeting Business Risks and Opportunities
Sunday, September 26, 1999
12:00-1:30 p.m.
Luncheon
Joel Prakken, presiding
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Peter L. Bernstein
President
Peter L. Bernstein, Inc.
This noted author and consultant will set the stage for this year’s annual meeting theme, "Targeting Risks and Opportunities". He will provide a far ranging overview of risk in business and life—how it appears, how to manage it and how to analyze it.
1:30-3:00 p.m.
Practical Risk Modeling in Spreadsheets
Sam Savage, Stanford University
The seminar will cover the basics of
3:00-3:30 p.m.
Networking Break
Sponsored by AT&T and Bridge News
3:30-5:30 p.m.
Practical Risk Modeling continued
6:00-7:30 p.m.
Reception
San Francisco Museum of Modern Art
Sponsored by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.
Monday, September 27, 1999
7:00-8:00 a.m.
Continental Breakfast
Sponsored by Bank of America
8:00-8:15 a.m.
President’s Welcome
Joel Prakken
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
8:15-9:30 a.m.
The NABE Outlook, Economic Risks, and Business Implications
Diane Swonk
NABE Vice President
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
BANK ONE
Robert Parry
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
NABE President (1979-80)
The goal is to set the stage for organizations involved in business planning. The session will identify key macro, financial, and policy risks on the horizon.
9:30-10:00 a.m.
Networking Break
Sponsored by Haver Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
10:00-11:00 a.m.
Evaluating Rating Agencies: Recent Developments and Lessons from the High Yield Bond Markets
Mary Ann Greenwood, presiding
Greenwood & Associates, Inc.
Edward I. Altman
Max L. Heine Professor of Finance
Leonard Stern School of Business
New York University
Risk managers often turn to professional risk evaluation organizations to understand the creditworthiness and business risk of individual companies. They also look to measures of business risk from financial statements and capital markets. This session will evaluate the accuracy of the agency appraisals. In particular, Prof. Altman will examine the increased importance of rating agencies in the light of the new BIS report on credit risk, the recent track record of sovereign risk assessment in Asia and the degree that changes in a firm's bond rating can be used, or not, to predict future changes.
11:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.
David L. Vance, presiding
Chief Economist and Manager of Business Intelligence
Caterpillar Inc.
Andrew W. Lo
Harris & Harris Group Professor
Director, Laboratory for Financial Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Business people who are learning about risk management often lack a systematic way of introducing business risk analysis into the planning process. This session will provide such a framework to help make better business decisions.
12:00-1:30 p.m.
Lunch: Adam Smith Award Address
Sponsored by the Wall Street Journal
Joel Prakken, presiding
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Life Imitates Art: Is the Economy Coming to Resemble the Model?
Alan Blinder
Professor, Princeton University and
Vice-Chairman, the G7 Group
As one whose advice helped policymakers steer the economy to its best performance in three decades, there is no one better qualified to understand the risks and opportunities facing the U.S. economy as it charges toward the 21st Century
1:30-2:30 p.m.
Measurement and Evaluation of Business Risk
Peter Jaquette, presiding
Weyerhaeuser Corporation
Leslie Rahl slideshow
Principal, Capital Market Risk Advisors
Steven Trachtman slideshow
PriceWaterhouseCoopers, LLP
The two speakers in this session will discuss the available tools for measuring and analyzing risk in the capital markets specifically and the business environment generally. They will demonstrate state of the art examples of those tools in action.
2:30-3:00 p.m.
Networking Break
Sponsored by Fannie Mae and Motorola
3:00-4:00 p.m.
The Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Papers Session
Sponsored by Greenwood Associates
Donald R. Anderson, moderator
Chief Economist, Acordis
London
1999 Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award
Economic Foundations and Risk Analysis in Investment Management
R. McFall Lamm, Jr., Managing Director and Chief Strategist, Bankers Trust Company
Francis H. Schott, discussant
Economic & Financial Consulting/Corporate Director
1999 NABE Contributed Paper Award
Country Risk and Foreign Direct Investment
Duncan H. Meldrum, Corporate Economist, Air Products & Chemicals Inc
Enrique Sanchez, discussant
Bank of America
4:00-5:00 p.m.
Business Meeting
Joel Prakken
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Diane Swonk
NABE Vice President
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
BANK ONE
Evaluation of NABE activities over the past year and opportunities for the coming year.
5:00-6:30 p.m.
Reception
Hyatt Regency Embarcadero
Tuesday, September 28, 1999
7:30-9:00 a.m.
Breakfast
Risks in New Technology
Joel Prakken, presiding
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Richard B. Berner, introduction
Chief U.S. Economist
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.
William J. Raduchel
Chief Strategy Officer
Sun Microsystems
Rapidly changing technology poses many risks as well as offering many opportunities to business. The chief strategy officer of a major U. S. corporation will present a perspective on both.
9:00-10:00 a.m.
Richard B. Berner, presiding
Chief U.S. Economist
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.
Adrift in the Sea of Market Forces: The Real Impact of Internet Technology on Business
Sam Kinney
Co-Founder and Executive Vice President
FreeMarkets Online
10:00-10:30 a.m.
Networking Break
Sponsored by BANK ONE
10:30 a.m.-12:00 p.m.
NBER Session
The Market for Insurance and Risk: New Frontiers or Dead Ends?
William C. Dunkelberg, moderator
Chief Economist
National Federation for Independent Business
Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics
Yale University
Some of our most important risks are not effectively manageable today because the relevant risk institutions do not exist. Proposals for several possible radical new institutions to deal with these risks will be discussed: futures or options on national incomes, futures or options on real estate such as single-family homes by city, and home equity insurance.
Professor of Finance and Economics
Graduate School of Business
Stanford University
The talk will explore the economic motivations for and uses of the rapidly expanding markets for trading credit risk, including credit derivatives, default swaps, and collateralized loan obligations.
12:00-1:30 p.m.
Luncheon
Sponsored by Bloomberg
Joel Prakken, presiding
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Economic Policy Opportunities and Risks
Honorable Martin Baily
Chair
Council of Economic Advisers
The economic policy agenda ahead including Social Security reform, new deregulation initiatives and changes in environmental legislation.
1:30-2:15 p.m.
Presidential Address
Diane C. Swonk, presiding
NABE Vice President
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Bank One
Productivity and Potential Growth in the New Economy
Joel Prakken
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
2:15-3:15 p.m.
Risk Modeling and Simulation: Pros and Cons
Richard S. Mueller, presiding
Principal
R. J. Rudden & Associates, Inc.
Till Guldimann
Vice Chairman
Infinity, A SunGard Company
Technology defines the megatrends reshaping finance. Learn about the impact of IT on information access and processing, the increased role of financial assets in the information society, the resulting changes in the institutional structures in the financial market, the implications for policy makers and investors and the consequent roles for and pitfalls in using models and simulation techniques to quantify and manage risk.
3:15-3:45 p.m.
Networking Break
Sponsored by Standard & Poor’s DRI
3:45-5:00 p.m.
Country and Political Risk: What’s the Right Framework?
Nariman Behravesh, presiding
Chief International Economist
Standard & Poor’s DRI
James Harris slideshow
Chief, Strategic Assessment Group
Central Intelligence Agency
Devi Aurora
Manager, Global Risk Service
Standard & Poor's DRI
Merli Baroudi
Director of Risk Analysis
EIU
London
5:00-6:00 p.m.
EMU: Business Risk and Opportunities
Herbert Fromlet, presiding
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Swedbank
Stockholm
C. Richard Neuspeech
Senior Economist
Rand Corporation
Elizabeth Waelbroeck–Rocha slideshow
Chief European Economist
Standard & Poor's DRI
Brussels
6:30-7:30 p.m.
Reception
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
7:30-9:30 p.m.
Awards Banquet
Joel Prakken, presiding
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Robert James Thomson
U.S. Managing Editor
Financial Times
The editor of a leading world business newspaper will discuss lessons learned by corporations that embrace risk and new opportunities.
Wednesday, September 29, 1999
7:30-9:00 a.m.
Breakfast
Joel Prakken, presiding
NABE President
Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Managing Credit Risk
Robert Heller
Executive Vice President and Director
Fair, Isaac and Company
Managing credit risk will always be part of the business landscape. A preeminent provider of credit risk analysis will discuss the best ways to do it.
9:00-10:00 a.m.
Health Risk for American Business
Russ DeVol, presiding
The Milken Institute
Michael Milken
Chairman
The Milken Institute
10:00 a.m.
Adjourn