The
Challenge of Affluence
42nd
Annual Meeting
September 10-13, 2000
The Drake Hotel, Chicago, IL
Join us for NABE’s 42nd
Annual Meeting on September 10-13, 2000 at the Drake Hotel, Chicago, IL.
Founded in 1959, NABE is a non-profit
association offering professional services to people who use economics in
their work. We have approximately
3000 national members and 44 participating chapters throughout the country.
Sponsors include:
Chicago
Mercantile Exchange
Bloomberg News
Wall Street Journal
BANK ONE Corporation
Financial Times
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Caterpillar, Inc.
Greenwood & Associates
The Executives' Club of Chicago
University of Chicago
Graduate School of Business
Chicago Sun-Times
Haver Analytics
Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Economy.com
Motorola
Scudder Kemper
Investments
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Economic Cycle Research Institute
Standard and Poor's DRI
OECD
WEFA
Fannie Mae
National Association of Purchasing Management
Academic Press
Bureau of National Affairs
US Bureau of the Census
ME Sharpe, Inc
US Bureau of Economic Analysis
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
In co-operation with the Economic Club of Chicago
1:00-2:15 p.m.
NABE
Skills Seminar: Getting your Voice Heard
1:00-2:15 p.m.
Walton Room
Diane C. Swonk, presiding, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
BANK ONE Corporation, NABE President
Bridging the Media Gap
Expanded stock ownership has wetted America’s
appetite for information on the economy. Debate the ethics of today’s
economic coverage and find out how you can be a part of the game with some of
the country’s top economic correspondents.
Kathleen Hayes, Anchor, CNBC
Mike McKee, Economic Correspondent,
Bloomberg News
Beth Belton, Online News Editor,
Business Week
2:15-2:45 p.m.
French Room
Coffee
and Networking Break
Sponsored By FANNIE MAE
NABE Skills Seminars: Getting your Voice Heard,
cont'd.
2:45-4:15 p.m.
Walton Room
Diane C. Swonk, presiding, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
BANK ONE Corporation, NABE President
Communicating
in Sound Bites
Participate in a live talk-show simulation with a
nationally known public television host and top public relations consultant.
Get tips on how to communicate effectively with the press and your
clients and how to get your views heard.
Lisabeth
Weiner,
Lisabeth Weiner Consultants
Phil Ponce, Host, “Chicago Tonight”
4:15-5:15 p.m.
NABE
Roundtable Concurrent Sessions*
Drake
Room
Financial Roundtable
"Government
Agents as Private Enterprises"
Bernard M. Markstein III, presiding, President, Markstein Advisors and
Chair, Financial Roundtable
John
Silvia, Senate Banking Committee
Walton
Room
Regional/Utility
Roundtable
"Competing for
Wealth—Changes in the Distribution of Wealth among U.S. Regions
Jack
E. Kleinhenz,
presiding, Chief Economist, Research and Planning Officer,
Greater Cleveland Growth Association and Chair-elect, Regional/Utility
Roundtable
Sara L. Johnson, Standard & Poor's DRI
Nancy Sidhu, Economic Development Corp of Los Angeles
*Roundtable members only. For
information how to join, please contact the NABE office at nabe@nabe.com, or 202-463-6223.
5:15-7:00 p.m.
Reception
BANK ONE, 57th Floor
Clark and Madison
SPONSORED BY BANK ONE CORPORATION
At 5:15 p.m. begin boarding buses at the Oak Street entrance to the hotel.
Enter Bank One Corp. at the Clark Street entrance. Note Four Seasons by Marc
Chagall in the bank plaza as you debark from the bus. You may walk around the
plaza to enjoy a better view of the mosaic mural, a gift to the citizens of
Chicago by the artist. Take elevators to the 57th floor of the bank for the
reception. Enjoy the panoramic view and art collection while networking with
your associates. Beverages and light refreshments will be served. Buses will
shuttle between the bank and the hotel. Last bus will leave the bank at 7:15
p.m. Dinner is on your own.
Monday,
September 11, 2000
7:00-8:00 a.m.
Continental
Breakfast
8:00–8:15 a.m.
Grand Ballroom
Welcome
Diane C. Swonk, presiding, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, BANK ONE Corporation, NABE President
8:15-9:30 a.m.
Challenging
the Consensus
Will the good times continue? Is
inflation a threat? Or, have we entered a new era, where the onset of
inflation can be indefinitely delayed. Debate the issues with the NABE panel
and one of the more provocative Federal Reserve System Presidents.
Diane C. Swonk, presiding, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, BANK ONE Corporation, NABE President
The
NABE Outlook
Richard B. Berner,
Managing Director and Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter &
Company and NABE President-elect
A New Economic Paradigm
Robert McTeer, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
9:30-10:00 a.m.
French Room
Coffee and Networking Break
9:30-10:00
a.m.
Superior Room
International
Roundtable Business Meeting
Bharat Nauriyal, presiding, Chief Economist, Nationwide and Chair,
International Roundtable
10:00-11:00 a.m.
Grand Ballroom
Is
There Anything New About the New Economy?
Both speakers have books out on the New
Economy. They will shed light on
the new economy/old economy debate and the signposts that will tell us how far
along we are in this transition.
Joel
L. Prakken, presiding, Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC
Joel
Moykr,
Robert H. Strotz Professor of Arts and Sciences; Professor of Economics and
History; Departmental Chair, Department of Economics, Northwestern University;
and author of The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic
Progress
Michael Cox, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas, and author of Myths of Rich and Poor
11:00-12:15 p.m.
Setting
the Record Straight on China
China
may soon become the second largest economy in
the world. This session attempts to separate myth from reality in one the U.S.
largest trading partners.
Timothy McNulty,
presiding,
Foreign Editor, The Chicago
Tribune
Nicholas Lardy, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, Brookings Institution
David Fridley,
Staff Scientist, Energy and Environment Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
12:15-1:30 p.m.
Adam
Smith Award Luncheon
Diane
C. Swonk, presiding, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, BANK ONE
Corporation, NABE President
NABE's 19th Annual Adam Smith Award Address
James E. Annable, Jr,
Introduction,
Director of Economics, BANK ONE
Alice Rivlin, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution and Chair, District
of Columbia Financial Management Assistance Authority.
1:30-2:45 p.m.
Grand Ballroom
The
Edmund A. Mennis Contributed
Paper Session
Robert T. Crow, presiding, Editor, Business Economics
Forecasting Inflation and Growth: Do Private
Forecasts Match Those of Policymakers?
William T. Gavin, Vice President & Research Coordinator, and Rachel
J. Mandal, Research Analyst, both at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
and winners of the Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award
Anticipating Monetary Policy With the Federal Reserve's Beige Book:
Re-specifying the Taylor Rule
David R. Payne, Economist/Statistician, U.S. Department of Commerce and
winner, NABE Contributed Paper Award
At this session we will present awards to the following for their outstanding
contributions to Business Economics: Adolph Abramson Award to Jian-Chiu Han
and Abramson Scrolls to Peter L. Bernstein, Charles W. Bischoff,
Halefom Belay, In-Bong Kang, Albert E. De Prince, Jr., William F. Ford, and
Duncan Meldrum.
2:45-3:00 p.m.
French Room
Coffee and
Networking Break
Sponsored by Motorola, Inc
2:45-3:15 p.m.
Superior Room
Technology Roundtable Business Meeting
Bruce J. Kratofil, presiding, President, BJK Research, NABE Webmaster,
and chair, Technology Roundtable
3:00-4:00 p.m.
Grand Ballroom
The
NBER Session
The 1993 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics Sciences
will speak on income distribution. His
forthcoming book is titled The Fourth
Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism.
William
C. Dunkelberg, presiding, Chief Economist, National Federation of
Independent Business and NABE President 1993-94
Robert Fogel,
Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of American Institutions,
University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, and recipient of the Nobel
Memorial Prize in Economic Science, 1993.
NABE thanks the National Bureau of Economic Research for coordinating this
session.
4:00-6:00 p.m.
Chicago
Mercantile Exchange
30 South
Wacker Drive
SPONSORED BY THE CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
At 4:00 p.m. begin boarding buses at the Oak Street entrance to the hotel.
Enter the CME at the 30 South Wacker Drive entrance. Staff will direct you to
the escalators and to the Lower Trading Room on the third floor. There you
will be organized into groups of about 15 to 20 and instructed how to trade
options. Then you will practice your skills by participating in a mock trading
session. After the trading session, Scott Gordon, Chairman of the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange, will welcome you to a reception where beverages
and light refreshments will be served. Buses will shuttle between the CME and
the hotel. Last bus will leave the CME at 6:45 p.m.
Tuesday,
September 12, 2000
7:00-8:00 a.m.
French Room
Continental
Breakfast
Sponsored by Caterpillar, Inc.
8:00-8:30 a.m.
E-Commerce
Business-to-business is
the backbone of the changing automobile industry. Learn about this use of new technology from a person who is
making it happen.
Thomas
F. Davis, presiding, Vice President, Chief Economist, and Director of
Corporate Planning, Motorola, Inc. and NABE President 1997-98
Gary Dilts, Senior Vice President, eConnect, Daimler Chrysler
8:30-9:00 a.m.
Monetary
Policy Challenges
Have shifts in
financial markets limited the Fed’s reach with monetary policy? Is
pre-emptive policy prudent or outdated in today’s new high-tech environment?
What are the challenges facing policymakers in today’s less certain
environment? Discuss the issues with a prominent Federal Reserve President.
Diane
C. Swonk, presiding, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, BANK ONE
Corporation, NABE President
Michael H. Moskow, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago
9:00-10:00 a.m.
Changing
Sources of Business Finance
An assessment of the state of the mutual fund and venture capital industries.
Francis
H. Schott, presiding, Economic & Financial Consulting and Corporate
Director
James E. Crawford III, General Partner, Frontenac Company
Richard B. Hoey, Chief Economist, Chief Investment Strategist, The
Dreyfus Corporation and Chief Economist, Mellon Financial Corporation
10:00-10:20
a.m.
French Room
Coffee
and Networking Break
Sponsored by The Chicago Sun-Times
10:00-10:30
a.m.
Ontario Room
Manufacturing Roundtable Business Meeting
Doug G. Andrey, presiding, Director, Information Systems & Finance,
Semiconductor Industry Association, and chair, Manufacturing Roundtable.
10:20-11:15a.m.
Business-to-Business and How It's Transforming Business
More
on how technology is changing the way we do business from an academic expert
who also serves on the boards of several companies.
Carl Tannenbaum, presiding, LaSalle Banks/ABN AMRO N.A.
Steven N. Kaplan, Neubauer Family Professor of Entrepreneurship and
Finance, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.
11:15-12:15 p.m.
Grand Ballroom
Addressing the Labor Shortage Problem
For sometime the NABE Industry Survey has
documented labor shortages. This session will look at the issue and discuss
where the workers will come from to maintain economic growth and prosperity.
Norman E. Mains, presiding, President, Carr Global Advisors
William H. Frey, Senior Fellow, Milken Institute and Research
Scientist, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan
Barry R. Chiswick,
Head and Research Professor, Department of Economics, School of Business,
University of Illinois at Chicago
12:15-2:00 p.m.
Gold Coast Room
The
CEA Luncheon
The Chair of the President’s Council of
Economic Advisers will present his views on challenges that the government
faces in this era of prosperity.
Diane C. Swonk, presiding, Senior Vice
President and Chief Economist, BANK ONE Corporation, NABE President
Martin Baily, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
At the luncheon we will present the NABE Outlook Award for the best
macroeconomic forecast.
2:00-2:30 p.m.
NABE
Presidential Address
The NABE President will deliver the 42nd
presidential address.
Richard
B. Berner, presiding, Managing Director and Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan
Stanley Dean Witter & Co., NABE President-elect
Diane C. Swonk, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, BANK ONE
Corporation, NABE President
2:30-3:00 p.m.
Coffee and Networking Break
Sponsored by Motorola, Inc
3:00-4:15 p.m.
Old
Antitrust Laws for a New Economy?
Until recently, enforcement of antitrust
laws has been dormant. With cases such as Microsoft making the headlines, we
need to ask ourselves whether century-old antitrust laws work in today’s
rapidly changing economy. This animated panel of legal and economic experts
will discuss those questions and more.
Harvey
Rosenblum, presiding, Senior Vice President and Director of Research,
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and NABE Vice President-elect
Dennis W. Carleton, Professor of
Economics, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, and President of
Lexecon Inc.
4:15-5:15 p.m.
Grand Ballroom
Meaningful
Statistics for the 21st Century
Our Federal statistical agencies are very
good at measuring output, such as the number of hogs or ingots of steel.
How are they at measuring less tangible services and the high-tech
component of the economy’s output? This
session takes a closer look at what we do and do not know about today’s
economy, and provides insights into what we could measure better.
Maurine
Haver, presiding, Haver Analytics
Frederick Knickerbocker, Associate
Director for Economic Programs, U.S. Census Bureau
J. Steven Landefeld, Director,
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Katharine Abraham, Commissioner,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5:30-7:00 p.m.
Gold Coast Room
NABE Dinner
Diane C. Swonk, presiding, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, BANK ONE Corporation, NABE President
Boom or Bust - The Outlook for Financial Markets
Bear or bull, all will gain insights from one
of Wall Street's best in this provocative discussion of the outlook for global
financial markets.
Abby Joseph Cohen, Co Chair Investment
Policy Committee, Goldman, Sachs & Co. via video
Business Meeting
NABE's annual business meeting.
Wednesday,
September 13, 2000
7:15-8:45 a.m.
Breakfast
with a CEO
Sponsored by the Financial Times
In conjunction with the Executive's Club of Chicago and in cooperation with
the Economic Club of Chicago
Diane C. Swonk, presiding, NABE President, BANK ONE Corporation
The CEO Keynote Address
James Dimon,
Chairman and CEO, BANK ONE Corporation
David Glass, Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Board of
Directors, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
8:45-9:15 a.m.
Ensuring
the Spread of Prosperity
One lesson of the
current expansion is that financial markets can turn with the flip of a coin.
Information and money moves around the globe in an instant, yet we still lack
a context to process all that information.
Missteps occur, and can prove fatal for affected regions. This session
takes a closer look at reforms made in the wake of the global financial market
crisis and lays out an agenda for what needs to be done next.
James F. Smith, presiding, University
of North Carolina
George Kaufman, John F. Smith Professor of Finance and Economics;
Director, Center for Financial and Policy Studies, School of Business
Administration, Loyola University of Chicago; and Co-chair, Shadow Financial
Regulatory Committee
9:15-9:45 a.m.
The
Future of the Euro: A View from the UK
A short history of the euro, its current status, and its outlook.
Maureen F. Allyn, presiding, Managing Director and Chief Economist,
Scudder Kemper Investments Inc.
Robert James Thomson, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times
9:45-10:00
a.m.
Coffee and Networking Break
Sponsored by Scudder Kemper Investments
9:45-10:15
a.m.
Health Economics Roundtable
Business Meeting
Superior Room
10:00-11:00 a.m.
Mexico's New Politics and the Impact on the North American Economy
In the aftermath of the recent elections, what new economic policies will be pursued? Hear an assessment from two experts.
David R. Allardice, presiding, Senior
Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Detroit Branch
Abel Beltran del Rio, President and Founder, CIEMEX-WEFA, Inc.
Jonathan Heath, President, Jonathan Heath and Associates
11:00-11:30
Progress
in Japan
Update on the
restructuring and financial reform in Japan.
Scott Gordon,
presiding, Chairman, Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Naoki Tanaka , President, 21st
Century Public Policy Institute, Japan
11:30-12:00
Outlook for Japan
Prospects
for financial markets and the economy.
Richard B. Berner, Managing Director and Chief U.S. Economist, Morgan
Stanley Dean Witter & Company and NABE President-elect
Donald H. Straszheim, President, The Milken Institute
12:00-1:30 p.m.
Herbert
Stein Memorial Luncheon
NABE ends its 42nd annual meeting with a bang. Widely recognized writer, scholar, and comedian Ben Stein will accept NABE’s first ever Herbert Stein Public Service Award on behalf of his father.
Diane
C. Swonk, presiding, NABE President, BANK ONE Corporation
Ben
Stein, Economic Commentator
Alan Greenspan, Chairman, Federal Reserve Board on video
1:30 Adjourn