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Session Descriptions / Presentation Files

Monday, July 17

7:30 AM - 8:00 AM  Continental Breakfast
Ballroom Foyer

8:00 AM - 8:05 AM  Welcome Remarks
Corcoran Salon A
Stuart Mackintosh*, CBE, 2016-17 NABE President; Executive Director, Group of Thirty

8:05 AM - 9:05 AM  Economic Statistics from the US Government and Industry Sources
Corcoran Salon A
Maurine Haver+, CBE, Founder and President, Haver Analytics

This session will provide an overview of the statistics provided by the US federal statistical system with special focus on those to be covered in the seminar.  It will highlight examples of common misinterpretations of the data and the concepts to focus on in the upcoming EMS sessions.

9:10 AM - 10:20 AM  Track A: Measuring Employment 
Corcoran Salon A
Chris Manning, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Julie Hatch Maxfield, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Moderator: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics 

The Employment Situation is watched closely by financial markets worldwide and is often cited as the most important US economic release.   This session will explain the differences between the two featured measures of employment and why they may occasionally provide very different views of employment in any given month.  Presenters from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will discuss the Current Employment Statistics Survey (aka the Establishment Survey or Payroll Employment) and the Current Population Survey (aka the Household Survey), which is used to derive the unemployment rate, alternative measures of labor underutilization, and key labor force statistics for various demographic groups.   The presenters will cover each survey’s methodology, challenges such as business births and deaths for the establishment survey and common mistakes made in analyzing the employment report by reporters and bloggers.

9:10 AM - 10:20 AM  Track B: Federal Reserve Bank Regional Data, Surveys, and Studies 
Corcoran Salon B
Charles Gascon, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 
Sonya Waddell, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 
Megan Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 
Moderator: Keith R. Phillips, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - San Antonio Branch

The Federal Reserve District Banks produce a vast array of regional reports and unique data series, many of which are not promoted or publicized. In this session, representatives from three District offices will discuss data and research produced for their region. Participants will have an opportunity to learn more about the unique regional data, current analysis and research projects produced at these District Banks.  

10:20 - 10:40 AM  Networking Break 
Ballroom Foyer

10:40 AM - 11:50 AM  Track A: GDP and the National Accounts 
Corcoran Salon A
Jason Chute, Bureau of Economic Analysis 
Kathleen Navin, CBE, Macroeconomic Advisers 
Moderator: Robert Parker, Economist

This session will cover the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), which are essential for understanding US economic activity.  Topics will include the structure of the NIPAs, the composition of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income, and the relationship between them, as well as important characteristics of real GDP and its components.   You will learn how to properly calculate contributions to real growth and to construct your own special aggregates using GDP components.

10:40 AM - 11:50 AM  Track B: Retail Sales 
Corcoran Salon B
Scott A. Scheleur, Census Bureau
Moderator & Presenter: Jack Kleinhenz+, CBE, National Retail Federation 

This presentation will briefly review concepts behind the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly and annual report of sales by retailers, including automobiles. Sales are reported in dollar terms and classified by store type rather than by actual products sold.  Retail sales account for approximately 40 % of total consumer spending and 30 % of GDP.  This session features a presentation by the Retail Indicators Branch of the U.S. Census Bureau.  As part of this session, nationally-known retail economists will provide their perspective on the industry and how they use the Census retail sales data and supplemental measures to assess and forecast trends in consumer spending.

11:50 AM - 1:05 PM  Luncheon - The Promise and Limits of New Economic Data
Dumbarton
Jed Kolko, Chief Economist, Indeed 
Introduction: Jack Kleinhenz+, CBE, National Retail Federation

1:10 PM - 2:20 PM  Track A: Measuring Inflation 
Corcoran Salon A
Steve Reed, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Kyle Brown, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Moderator: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the cost of living by measuring the change in price of a market basket of consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will present an overview of the CPI. Topics covered will include the conceptual foundation of the CPI, seasonal adjustment, quality adjustment, initiation of items into the sample, and the treatment of new goods and sample rotation. A representative from the BEA will follow, comparing and contrasting the CPI with the chain-type Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.   

1:10 PM - 2:20 PM  Track B: Wages, Earnings, and Compensation 
Corcoran Salon B
Michael Horrigan#, CBE, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
John Robertson, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Moderator: George Kahn#, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

This session will present an overview of the major wage, earnings, and compensation measures produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  These include measures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey; the Current Population Survey (CPS); the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Survey; the Employment Cost Index (ECI) Program; and measures from the BLS Office of Productivity.  For data series examined, the goal is to first define the scope and measurement goal of the series, then to provide the methodological background on their construction, and finally to examine trends in what the series are telling us about wages, earnings, and compensation in the U.S. economy.   

2:25 PM - 3:35 PM  Track A: International Transactions 
Corcoran Salon A
Raymond Mataloni, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Manuel Balmaseda*, CBE, CEMEX 
Moderator: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics

The international statistics produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) describe the U.S. economy’s relationship with the rest of the world.  These statistics are presented in the international transactions accounts (Balance of Payments), the international investment position accounts, and in data on the operations of multinational companies.  Session participants will learn what data are presented in these accounts, how they are structured, their key data sources, and how to  access the data.  

2:25 PM - 3:35 PM  Track B: Housing and Construction
Corcoran Salon B
Erica M. Filipek, Census Bureau 
Michael LaCour-Little, Fannie Mae 
Moderator: Ken Simonson+, Associated General Contractors of America 

This session will present an overview of economic indicators from the federal government and a variety of private sector sources covering residential and nonresidential construction; housing starts, sales, price trends; and affordability measures. The presenters will illustrate how they use data from different sources to gain insight on where various indicators are headed and how activity differs by locality. 

3:40 PM - 4:00 PM  Networking Break 
Ballroom Foyer

4:00 PM - 5:10 PM  Track A: Corporate Profits 
Corcoran Salon A
Kate Pinard, Bureau of Economic Analysis 
Dick Rippe+, CBE, Evercore ISI Group 
Moderator: Rosemary Marcuss+, Economist 

This session will clarify the difference between economic profits as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and profits reported by corporations in their financial statements.    A speaker from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will cover what is included or not included in the NIPAs, special terminology such as IVA and CCA, and the source data used to derive NIPA profits.  A data user will focus on the difference between financial and tax profits and those reported in the NIPAs and the reasons for using all of these different measures for the best understanding of trends in corporate profitability.

4:00 PM - 5:10 PM  Track B: Understanding Monetary Policy 
Corcoran Salon B
Larry Meyer, LH Meyer, Inc. 
Dana Saporta*, CBE, Credit Suisse 
Moderator: Jack Kleinhenz+, CBE, National Retail Federation

The Federal Reserve has evolved in the past quarter century from a secretive, mysterious force in the financial system to a much more accessible, transparent institution. But even in the current era of openness, understanding monetary policy remains a challenge. In this session, a former Fed governor will summarize a perspective on analyzing monetary policy and discuss current issues in U.S. monetary policy.  A business economist will then provide an outsider’s perspective, describing the practice and importance of “Fedwatching” in the private sector. 

5:15 PM - 6:15 PM  Networking Reception 
Seasons (Mezzanine Level)

6:30 PM - 8:00 PM  Get Connected Networking Happy Hour
Old Glory
3139 M Street, NW
Washington, DC 20007

Tuesday, July 18

7:30 AM - 8:00 AM  Continental Breakfast
Ballroom Foyer

8:00 AM - 9:10 AM  Track A: Employment Indicators 
Corcoran Salon A
Brenda Loya, Department of Labor
Kevin Cooksey, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Charlotte Oslund, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Moderator: Michael Horrigan#, CBE, Bureau of Labor Statistics

This session will feature presentations on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Business Employment Dynamics and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance program. Data from these programs are widely used to measure economic and entrepreneurial activity in the labor market and the overall health of the economy. The presenters will provide an overview of each program, including the methodology, data published, the scope and source of the data, the news releases produced by the programs, and uses and users of the data.

8:00 AM - 9:10 AM  Track B: Economics of Health and Healthcare 
Corcoran Salon B
David Newman, Health Care Cost Institute
John Poisal, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
Moderator: Richard Wobbekind+, CBE, University of Colorado 

9:15 AM - 10:25 AM  Track A: Productivity 
Corcoran Salon B
Chris Sparks, Bureau of Labor Statistics 
Bob Shackleton, Congressional Budget Office
Moderator: William A. Strauss#, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

This presentation will briefly review concepts behind the BLS measures of labor and multi-factor productivity and related series on outputs and inputs.  It will then discuss some of the properties of these series, both in the long run and over the business cycle.  The presentation will briefly analyze the relationship between productivity, output, labor hours, other inputs, compensation and unit labor costs.

9:15 AM - 10:25 AM  Track B:  Energy Statistics
Corcoran Salon B
Stephen Harvey, Energy Information Administration
Martha Moore, CBE, American Chemistry Council
Moderator: Mine Yücel*, CBE, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

A Data producer from the Energy Information Administration will illustrate the changes in the collection and dissemination of energy data and their implications by discussing the current trends in energy areas including oil and gas production and electric generation. A prominent data user will show how energy statistics from a variety of sources are used to track and understand the opportunities and challenges for the chemical industry arising from a changing energy landscape. 

10:25 AM - 10:45 AM  Networking Break
Ballroom Foyer

10:45 AM - 11:55 AM  Track A: Financial Accounts  
Corcoran Salon A
Matthew Hoops, Federal Reserve Board
Constance L. Hunter#, CBE, KPMG
Moderator: Richard Brown#, CBE, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

The Financial Accounts of the US, also known as the Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA), present sources and uses of funds for different sectors of the economy.   Together with the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), they form the national accounts for the United States.  This presentation will describe the matrix structure of the accounts, the sectors and instruments included in the accounts, and the underlying source data.  The Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts (IMA),  compiled jointly with BEA, will also be covered.

10:45 AM - 11:55 AM  Track B: International Comparisons
Corcoran Salon B
Florina Tanase, International Monetary Fund
Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Moderator: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics

Working with economic data across countries poses a number of challenges given different conventions, methodologies, currencies, frequencies, and country characteristics.  Efforts of the IMF, UN and other international organizations to promote international standards have been constructive, but they occasionally have led to greater confusion when the same term is used for two entirely different concepts.   Our speakers will address how to avoid the most frequently made mistakes and the areas requiring the most attention when making international comparisons.

12:00 PM - 1:15 PM  Luncheon - Data and Drama: Not an Oxymoron
Dumbarton
Steve Liesman, Senior Economics Reporter, CNBC
Introduction: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics

1:15 PM - 2:00 PM  Seasonal Adjustment
Corcoran Salon B
Ataman Ozyildirim, The Conference Board
Introduction: Maurine Haver+, CBE, Haver Analytics

Seasonality is a common feature of economic data and if not properly addressed, it can cloud our judgment about what the data are telling us.  Seasonal adjustment methodologies have been developed to remove these predictable patterns to reveal the underlying trend and cycle.  When is seasonal adjustment appropriate?  What are the best methods?  What are the pitfalls and challenges in analyzing seasonal and seasonally adjusted data? This session will look at these issues from a user’s perspective to help develop a deeper appreciation for working with economic indicators.

2:00 PM - 3:00 PM  Perspectives on the Role of Chief Economist: Leading and Team Building
Corcoran Salon B
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick+, CBE, Senior Adviser, Macro Policy Perspectives LLC; Senior Economist, University of Michigan Energy Institute
Introduction: Jack Kleinhenz+, CBE, National Retail Federation

3:15 PM - 5:00 PM Bonus Session: Maintaining the Quality and Integrity of US Government Data: A Discussion and Mixer for Journalists and Economists
Corcoran Salon B
Michael Horrigan#, CBE, Associate Commissioner, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
John Eltinge, Assistant Director of Research and Methodology, U.S. Census Bureau
Brian Moyer, Director, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Constance Hunter#, CBE, Chief Economist, KPMG
Moderator: Marilyn Geewax, Senior Business Editor, NPR

Timely and reliable economic statistics are key to the work of both economists and journalists as they endeavor to grasp and crystallize the ever-evolving economic situation for their audiences. Threats to high-quality economic statistics include insufficient budgetary funding for the federal statistical system, resulting in cuts to programs and survey samples, and reduced survey response rates. The dynamic U.S. economy requires statistical agencies to constantly be modernizing, researching, and investing to ensure measurements keep pace. This panel discussion features senior officials from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau to learn how the agencies are innovating and evolving in a time of growing budgetary and political challenges.

The panel discussion will conclude at 4:00 PM, and a networking reception hosted by The NABE Foundation, American Institutes for Research (AIR), National Public Radio (NPR), and the Society of American Business Editors and Writers (SABEW) will follow in the Conservatory & Patio.

* Current NABE Director
# Former NABE Director
+ Former NABE President

 indicates that a session is part of the CBE core curriculum.